Evidence map›Paper›PMID 32934233›Full record

ArticleNature communications2020

Age and life expectancy clocks based on machine learning analysis of mouse frailty.

Michael B Schultz, Alice E Kane, Sarah J Mitchell, Michael R MacArthur, Elisa Warner, David S Vogel, James R Mitchell, Susan E Howlett, Michael S Bonkowski, David A Sinclair

Erratum issuedAbstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Nature communications, 2020. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. An erratum has been issued. Cited by 81 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
81citing papers in PubMed, 1 pooled it
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

81 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.

  1. Pooled it
  2. Article
  3. Review
  4. Embracing non-linearity in human ageing.Nature reviews. Genetics · 2026
    Review
  5. The association of frailty with age and lifespan in mice differs by strain and sex.The journals of gerontology. Series A, Biological sciences and medical sciences · 2026
    Article
  6. Article
  7. Article
  8. Social and clinical frailty indices in aging mice: a comparative analysis of longitudinal and cross-sectional designs.The journals of gerontology. Series A, Biological sciences and medical sciences · 2026
    Article
  9. Review
  10. Life-long behavioral screen reveals an architecture of vertebrate aging.bioRxiv : the preprint server for biology · 2025
    Article
  11. Article
  12. Multiomic clocks to predict phenotypic age in mice.The journals of gerontology. Series A, Biological sciences and medical sciences · 2025
    Article
  13. Article
  14. Article
  15. Article
  16. Article
  17. Article
  18. Workshop Report-Heterogeneity and Successful Aging Part I: Heterogeneity in Aging-Challenges and Opportunities.The journals of gerontology. Series A, Biological sciences and medical sciences · 2025
    Article
  19. Article
  20. Article

21 more citing papers are in PubMed but not listed here.

4 · The record

Corrections and comments

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

10 authors.

Michael B Schultz *Blavatnik Institute, Department of Genetics, Paul F. Glenn Center for Biology of Aging Research at Harvard Medical School, Boston, MA, USA.
Alice E Kane *Blavatnik Institute, Department of Genetics, Paul F. Glenn Center for Biology of Aging Research at Harvard Medical School, Boston, MA, USA.
Sarah J MitchellDepartment of Genetics and Complex Diseases, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Boston, MA, USA.
Michael R MacArthurDepartment of Genetics and Complex Diseases, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Boston, MA, USA.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0003-3593-6995
Elisa WarnerDepartment of Computational Medicine & Bioinformatics, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI, USA.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0001-6694-2701
David S VogelVoloridge Investment Management, LLC and VoLo Foundation, Jupiter, FL, USA.
James R MitchellDepartment of Genetics and Complex Diseases, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Boston, MA, USA.
Susan E HowlettDepartments of Pharmacology and Medicine (Geriatric Medicine), Dalhousie University, Halifax, NS, Canada.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0001-5351-6308
Michael S BonkowskiBlavatnik Institute, Department of Genetics, Paul F. Glenn Center for Biology of Aging Research at Harvard Medical School, Boston, MA, USA.
David A SinclairBlavatnik Institute, Department of Genetics, Paul F. Glenn Center for Biology of Aging Research at Harvard Medical School, Boston, MA, USA. david_sinclair@hms.harvard.edu.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-9936-436X

Funding

Role of Sgs1 DNA helicase in telomere maintenanceR01AG019719 · NIA · HARVARD UNIVERSITY (MEDICAL SCHOOL) · PI SINCLAIR, DAVID A. · 2001 to 2022
$5.3M
SIRT1 as a regulator of health and lifespan of mammalsR37AG028730 · NIA · HARVARD MEDICAL SCHOOL · PI SINCLAIR, DAVID A. · 2012 to 2021
$4.1M
Training Program in BioinformaticsT32GM070449 · NIGMS · UNIVERSITY OF MICHIGAN AT ANN ARBOR · PI ATHEY, BRIAN DAVID, BURMEISTER, MARGIT · 2005 to 2020
$3.6M
Mechanisms of dietary control of the transsulfuration pathway and increased endogenous hydrogen sulfide productionR01DK090629 · NIDDK · HARVARD SCHOOL OF PUBLIC HEALTH · PI MITCHELL, SARAH JAYNE · 2011 to 2019
$3.0M
Elucidating mechanisms of SIRT1 activationR01DK100263 · NIDDK · HARVARD MEDICAL SCHOOL · PI SINCLAIR, DAVID A. · 2016 to 2020
$2.5M
Dietary restriction promotes vascular health through hydrogen sulfide-mediated angiogenesisR56AG036712 · NIA · HARVARD SCHOOL OF PUBLIC HEALTH · PI MITCHELL, JAMES R. · 2017 to 2017
$398k
NIA NIH HHS R01 AG019719NIA NIH HHS R37 AG028730NIA NIH HHS R56 AG036712NIDDK NIH HHS R01 DK090629NIDDK NIH HHS R01 DK100263NIGMS NIH HHS T32 GM070449
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

The identification of genes and interventions that slow or reverse aging is hampered by the lack of non-invasive metrics that can predict the life expectancy of pre-clinical models. Frailty Indices (FIs) in mice are composite measures of health that are cost-effective and non-invasive, but whether they can accurately predict health and lifespan is not known. Here, mouse FIs are scored longitudinally until death and machine learning is employed to develop two clocks. A random forest regression is trained on FI components for chronological age to generate the FRIGHT (Frailty Inferred Geriatric Health Timeline) clock, a strong predictor of chronological age. A second model is trained on remaining lifespan to generate the AFRAID (Analysis of Frailty and Death) clock, which accurately predicts life expectancy and the efficacy of a lifespan-extending intervention up to a year in advance. Adoption of these clocks should accelerate the identification of longevity genes and aging interventions.

Indexed as

AgingAnimalsBiological ClocksFemaleFrailtyHumansLife ExpectancyMachine LearningMaleMiceMice, Inbred C57BL

Identifiers

PMID32934233
PMCPMC7492249

What OpenQuestion holds

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Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.