ArticleJournal of the Royal Society, Interface2020
Transient indicators of tipping points in infectious diseases.
Article in Journal of the Royal Society, Interface, 2020. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 12 papers.
What it found
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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
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Who cites it
12 citing papers in PubMed.
- Nonlinear effects of noise on outbreaks of mosquito-borne diseases.PLoS computational biology · 2026Article
- Reconstructing the incidence rate and immune fraction of the population via a single snapshot survey: A case study of COVID-19 in Japan.PLoS computational biology · 2026Article
- Identifying COVID-19 peaks using early warning signals.PLoS computational biology · 2025Article
- Early warning signals do not predict a warming-induced experimental epidemic.PLOS global public health · 2025Article
- How biotic interactions structure species' responses to perturbations.Proceedings. Biological sciences · 2024Article
- Reactivity of complex communities can be more important than stability.Nature communications · 2023Article
- The potential of resilience indicators to anticipate infectious disease outbreaks, a systematic review and guide.PLOS global public health · 2023Article
- Data-driven prediction in dynamical systems: recent developments.Philosophical transactions. Series A, Mathematical, physical, and engineering sciences · 2022Article
- Overlapping timescales obscure early warning signals of the second COVID-19 wave.Proceedings. Biological sciences · 2022Article
- Challenges in modelling the dynamics of infectious diseases at the wildlife-human interface.Epidemics · 2021Review
- Deep learning for early warning signals of tipping points.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2021Article
- Early warning signals of infectious disease transitions: a review.Journal of the Royal Society, Interface · 2021Review
Corrections and comments
PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.
Authors and funding
4 authors.
Funding
Abstract
The majority of known early warning indicators of critical transitions rely on asymptotic resilience and critical slowing down. In continuous systems, critical slowing down is mathematically described by a decrease in magnitude of the dominant eigenvalue of the Jacobian matrix on the approach to a critical transition. Here, we show that measures of transient dynamics, specifically, reactivity and the maximum of the amplification envelope, also change systematically as a bifurcation is approached in an important class of models for epidemics of infectious diseases. Furthermore, we introduce indicators designed to detect trends in these measures and find that they reliably classify time series of case notifications simulated from stochastic models according to levels of vaccine uptake. Greater attention should be focused on the potential for systems to exhibit transient amplification of perturbations as a critical threshold is approached, and should be considered when searching for generic leading indicators of tipping points. Awareness of this phenomenon will enrich understanding of the dynamics of complex systems on the verge of a critical transition.
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Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.