ArticleJournal of public health (Oxford, England)2020
Tackling the elective case backlog generated by Covid-19: the scale of the problem and solutions.
Article in Journal of public health (Oxford, England), 2020. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 27 papers, 2 of them syntheses that pooled it.
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The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
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Who cites it
27 citing papers in PubMed, 2 syntheses or guidelines pooled it, 54 citations in OpenAlex.
- Understanding "Alert Fatigue" in Primary Care: Qualitative Systematic Review of General Practitioners Attitudes and Experiences of Clinical Alerts, Prompts, and Reminders.Journal of medical Internet research · 2025Pooled it
- A systematic literature review on the utilization of extended operating room hours to reduce surgical backlogs.Frontiers in public health · 2023Pooled it
- Factors associated with admission before the day of elective major surgery: an analysis of data from the UK Perioperative Quality Improvement Programme.British journal of anaesthesia · 2026Observational
- Exposure to Violence for Nurses Across Ethnic Groups: A Qualitative Study.Journal of advanced nursing · 2025Article
- Impact of COVID-19 pandemic on elective care backlog trends, recovery efforts, and capacity needs to address backlogs in Scotland (2013-2023): a descriptive analysis and modelling study.The Lancet regional health. Europe · 2025Article
- Cohort profile: The SAIL long-term conditions e-cohort (SLTC cohort) investigating area-level changes in healthcare resource use in Wales.International journal of population data science · 2025Article
- The cost of keeping patients waiting: retrospective treatment-control study of additional healthcare utilisation for UK patients awaiting elective treatment.BMC health services research · 2024Article
- Enhanced recovery after elective spinal surgery: an Australian pilot study.Journal of spine surgery (Hong Kong) · 2024Article
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- Enhancing access to primary care is critical to the future of an equitable health service: using process visualisation to understand the impact of national policy in the UK.Frontiers in health services · 2024Article
- Accuracy of a tool to prioritise patients awaiting elective surgery: an implementation report.BMJ health & care informatics · 2023Article
- Patient perspectives of pandemic-related disruptions in gastrointestinal care: developing communication strategies.PEC innovation · 2022Article
- A predictive model for the post-pandemic delay in elective treatment.Operations research for health care · 2022Article
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- Patient perspectives on elective orthopaedic surgery during the COVID-19 pandemic: a comparison between patients from different ethnic backgrounds.Annals of the Royal College of Surgeons of England · 2022Article
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- Reducing waiting lists for laparoscopic cholecystectomy: An intensive approach to aid COVID-19 recovery.European surgery : ACA : Acta chirurgica Austriaca · 2022Article
- Sclerobanding (Combined Rubber Band Ligation with 3% Polidocanol Foam Sclerotherapy) for the Treatment of Second- and Third-Degree Hemorrhoidal Disease: Feasibility and Short-Term Outcomes.Journal of clinical medicine · 2021Article
- Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Urologic Oncology Surgery: Implications for Moving Forward.Journal of clinical medicine · 2021Article
Corrections and comments
PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.
Authors and funding
6 authors at 2 institutions in 1 country.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
backgroundIn April 2020, Covid-19 brought NHS elective procedures to a halt. The aim of this paper is to produce accurate forecasts on the building backlog, highlight the state of waiting lists currently and propose solutions required to prevent a public health crisis.
methodUsing data published by NHS digital and NHS England on previous years, we have analysed and used this to produce estimates of cancellations and missed cases. We also analyse government data on waiting lists and show compliance or lack of with these.
resultsWe show that compliance with waiting list times pre pandemic was falling year on year (83.2% in 2020 down from 87% in 2019). Every month that passes we estimate that 400 000 cases are not being performed. This may include urgent cancer care work in some trusts.
conclusionsWaiting lists have been governed by strict rules since 2004. Given falling compliance with 18-week intention to treat we believe the scale of the backlog combined with NHS capacity diminished due to Covid-19 precautions is a public health crisis waiting to occur. We identify difficulties in resuming elective work and suggest strategies that could be employed to avoid a public health crisis.
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Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.