Evidence map›Paper›PMID 32919226›Full record

ArticleCancer epidemiology2020

Trends in time to cancer diagnosis around the period of changing national guidance on referral of symptomatic patients: A serial cross-sectional study using UK electronic healthcare records from 2006-17.

Sarah Price, Anne Spencer, Xiaohui Zhang, Susan Ball, Georgios Lyratzopoulos, Ruben Mujica-Mota, Sal Stapley, Obioha C Ukoumunne, Willie Hamilton

Open access · hybridAbstract readHistorical Article
In one paragraph

Article in Cancer epidemiology, 2020. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 25 papers, 3 of them syntheses that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
25citing papers in PubMed, 3 pooled it
2.7field-weighted citation impact, top 8% of its field
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

25 citing papers in PubMed, 3 syntheses or guidelines pooled it, 44 citations in OpenAlex.

  1. Pooled it
  2. A Bibliometric Analysis and Visualization of Decision Support Systems for Healthcare Referral Strategies.International journal of environmental research and public health · 2022
    Pooled it
  3. Pooled it
  4. Prediagnostic primary care consultations and imaging in emergency-diagnosed versus referred patients with lung cancer: a population-based linked data study.The British journal of general practice : the journal of the Royal College of General Practitioners · 2026
    Article
  5. Article
  6. Is now the time to rethink risk thresholds in cancer referral guidelines?The British journal of general practice : the journal of the Royal College of General Practitioners · 2025
    Article
  7. Unlocking cancer vaccine potential: What are the key factors?Human vaccines & immunotherapeutics · 2024
    Review
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  19. Detecting ovarian cancer in primary care: can we do better?The British journal of general practice : the journal of the Royal College of General Practitioners · 2022
    Article
  20. Article
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

9 authors at 3 institutions in 1 country.

Sarah PriceUniversity of Exeter Medical School, Room 1.20 College House, St Luke's Campus, University of Exeter, Exeter, Devon, EX1 2LU, UK. Electronic address: S.J.Price@exeter.ac.uk.
Anne SpencerHealth Economics Group, University of Exeter, Exeter, UK. Electronic address: a.e.spencer@exeter.ac.uk.
Xiaohui ZhangUniversity of Exeter Business School, University of Exeter, Exeter, UK. Electronic address: X.Zhang1@exeter.ac.uk.
Susan BallNational Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Applied Research Collaboration (ARC) South West Peninsula, University of Exeter, Exeter, UK. Electronic address: S.Ball3@exeter.ac.uk.
Georgios LyratzopoulosInstitute of Epidemiology and Health Care, University College London, UK. Electronic address: y.lyratzopoulos@ucl.ac.uk.
Ruben Mujica-MotaAcademic Unit of Health Economics, University of Leeds, Leeds, UK. Electronic address: r.e.mujica-mota@leeds.ac.uk.
Sal StapleyUniversity of Exeter Medical School, University of Exeter, Exeter, UK. Electronic address: S.A.Stapley@exeter.ac.uk.
Obioha C UkoumunneNational Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Applied Research Collaboration (ARC) South West Peninsula, University of Exeter, Exeter, UK. Electronic address: O.C.Ukoumunne@exeter.ac.uk.
Willie HamiltonUniversity of Exeter Medical School, University of Exeter, Exeter, UK. Electronic address: W.Hamilton@exeter.ac.uk.
University of Exeter · GBNational Institute for Health Research · GBUniversity of Leeds · GB

Funding

Cancer Research UK 18180Cancer Research UK 21550Cancer Research UK C18081/A18180Cancer Research UK C56843/A21550Cancer Research UK C8640/A23385
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

backgroundUK primary-care referral guidance describes the signs, symptoms, and test results ("features") of undiagnosed cancer. Guidance revision in 2015 liberalised investigation by introducing more low-risk features. We studied adults with cancer whose features were in the 2005 guidance ("Old-NICE") or were introduced in the revision ("New-NICE"). We compared time to diagnosis between the groups, and its trend over 2006-2017.

methodsClinical Practice Research Datalink records were analysed for adults with incident myeloma, breast, bladder, colorectal, lung, oesophageal, ovarian, pancreatic, prostate, stomach or uterine cancers in 1/1/2006-31/12/2017. Cancer-specific features in the year before diagnosis were used to create New-NICE and Old-NICE groups. Diagnostic interval was time between the index feature and diagnosis. Semiparametric varying-coefficient analyses compared diagnostic intervals between New-NICE and Old-NICE groups over 1/1/2006-31/12/2017.

resultsOver all cancers (N = 83,935), median (interquartile range) Old-NICE diagnostic interval rose over 2006-2017, from 51 (20-132) to 64 (30-148) days, with increases in breast (15 vs 25 days), lung (103 vs 135 days), ovarian (65·5 vs 100 days), prostate (80 vs 93 days) and stomach (72·5 vs 102 days) cancers. Median New-NICE values were consistently longer (99, 40-212 in 2006 vs 103, 42-236 days in 2017) than Old-NICE values over all cancers. After guidance revision, New-NICE diagnostic intervals became shorter than Old-NICE values for colorectal cancer.

conclusionsDespite improvements for colorectal cancer, scope remains to reduce diagnostic intervals for most cancers. Liberalised investigation requires protecting and enhancing cancer-diagnostic services to avoid their becoming a rate-limiting step in the diagnostic pathway.

Indexed as

AdolescentAdultCross-Sectional StudiesEarly Detection of CancerFemaleHistory, 21st CenturyHumansMaleNeoplasmsReferral and ConsultationUnited KingdomYoung AdultClinical decision rulesDiagnostic intervalEarly detection of cancerHealth care reformNeoplasmsPrimary health careSemiparametric varying-coefficient modelTime to diagnosis

Identifiers

PMID32919226
PMCPMC7480981
OpenAlexW3084001479

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
LicenceCC BY
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.