ArticleThe Lancet. Global health2020
Projected health-care resource needs for an effective response to COVID-19 in 73 low-income and middle-income countries: a modelling study.
Article in The Lancet. Global health, 2020. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 35 papers.
What it found
Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.
The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.
Who cites it
35 citing papers in PubMed.
- Real-time estimation of pathogen transmission dynamics from wastewater.Nature communications · 2026Article
- Impact of COVID-19 vaccination coverage on global disability burden of Guillain-Barré syndrome.NPJ vaccines · 2025Article
- The day-of-the-week effect is resilient to routine change.Memory & cognition · 2025Article
- An epidemiological modeling framework to inform institutional-level response to infectious disease outbreaks: a Covid-19 case study.Scientific reports · 2024Article
- Investigating the spatiotemporal characteristics and medical response during the initial COVID-19 epidemic in six Chinese cities.Scientific reports · 2024Article
- Article
- Economic burden due to COVID-19 in a Colombian Caribbean state, 2020 and 2021.Epidemiologia e servicos de saude : revista do Sistema Unico de Saude do Brasil · 2024Article
- An epidemiological modeling framework to inform institutional-level response to infectious disease outbreaks: A Covid-19 case study.Research square · 2023Article
- A global perspective on the intrinsic dimensionality of COVID-19 data.Scientific reports · 2023Article
- The positive impact of COVID-19 on critical care: from unprecedented challenges to transformative changes, from the perspective of young intensivists.Annals of intensive care · 2023Review
- Article
- Observational
- Lessons from the frontline: The COVID-19 pandemic emergency care experience from a human resource perspective in the Pacific region.The Lancet regional health. Western Pacific · 2022Article
- Estimating the cost of achieving basic water, sanitation, hygiene, and waste management services in public health-care facilities in the 46 UN designated least-developed countries: a modelling study.The Lancet. Global health · 2022Article
- Japan's development assistance for health: Historical trends and prospects for a new era.The Lancet regional health. Western Pacific · 2022Review
- Rapid, application-based survey to characterise the impacts of COVID-19 on LGBTQ+ communities around the world: an observational study.BMJ open · 2022Observational
- Preparing the health workforce for future public health emergencies in Africa.BMJ global health · 2022Article
- Informed Consent and Protection of Personal Data in Genetic Research on COVID-19.Healthcare (Basel, Switzerland) · 2022Review
- Construction and Immunogenicity of a Recombinant Pseudorabies Virus Expressing SARS-CoV-2-S and SARS-CoV-2-N.Frontiers in veterinary science · 2022Article
- Cost estimates of COVID-19 clinical management in Myanmar.BMC health services research · 2021Article
Corrections and comments
PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.
Authors and funding
8 authors.
Funding
Abstract
backgroundSince WHO declared the COVID-19 pandemic a Public Health Emergency of International Concern, more than 20 million cases have been reported, as of Aug 24, 2020. This study aimed to identify what the additional health-care costs of a strategic preparedness and response plan (SPRP) would be if current transmission levels are maintained in a status quo scenario, or under scenarios where transmission is increased or decreased by 50%.
methodsThe number of COVID-19 cases was projected for 73 low-income and middle-income countries for each of the three scenarios for both 4-week and 12-week timeframes, starting from June 26, 2020. An input-based approach was used to estimate the additional health-care costs associated with human resources, commodities, and capital inputs that would be accrued in implementing the SPRP.
findingsThe total cost estimate for the COVID-19 response in the status quo scenario was US$52·45 billion over 4 weeks, at $8·60 per capita. For the decreased or increased transmission scenarios, the totals were $33·08 billion and $61·92 billion, respectively. Costs would triple under the status quo and increased transmission scenarios at 12 weeks. The costs of the decreased transmission scenario over 12 weeks was equivalent to the cost of the status quo scenario at 4 weeks. By percentage of the overall cost, case management (54%), maintaining essential services (21%), rapid response and case investigation (14%), and infection prevention and control (9%) were the main cost drivers.
interpretationThe sizeable costs of a COVID-19 response in the health sector will escalate, particularly if transmission increases. Instituting early and comprehensive measures to limit the further spread of the virus will conserve resources and sustain the response.
fundingWHO, and UK Foreign Commonwealth and Development Office.
Indexed as
Identifiers
What OpenQuestion holds
Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.