Evidence map›Paper›PMID 32912998›Full record

ArticleScience (New York, N.Y.)2020

The emergence of SARS-CoV-2 in Europe and North America.

Michael Worobey, Jonathan Pekar, Brendan B Larsen, Martha I Nelson, Verity Hill, Jeffrey B Joy, Andrew Rambaut, Marc A Suchard, Joel O Wertheim, Philippe Lemey

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Science (New York, N.Y.), 2020. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 277 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
277citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

277 citing papers in PubMed.

  1. Article
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  9. Reconstructing the early spatial spread of pandemic respiratory viruses in the United States.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2026
    Article
  10. Article
  11. Article
  12. Genome Sequencing in Infectious Disease Outbreaks.Advances in experimental medicine and biology · 2026
    Review
  13. Article
  14. Review
  15. Article
  16. Article
  17. Synthetic host defense peptide inhibits SARS-CoV-2 replicationAntimicrobial agents and chemotherapy · 2025
    Article
  18. Article
  19. Article
  20. Article

217 more citing papers are in PubMed but not listed here.

4 · The record

Corrections and comments

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

10 authors.

Michael WorobeyDepartment of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ 85721, USA. worobey@arizona.edu msuchard@ucla.edu jwertheim@health.ucsd.edu philippe.lemey@kuleuven.be.ORCID 0000-0002-3578-1367
Jonathan PekarBioinformatics and Systems Biology Graduate Program, University of California San Diego, La Jolla, CA 92093, USA.ORCID 0000-0003-0977-2886
Brendan B LarsenDepartment of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ 85721, USA.ORCID 0000-0003-3136-2218
Martha I NelsonFogarty International Center, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD 20892, USA.ORCID 0000-0003-4814-0179
Verity HillInstitute of Evolutionary Biology, University of Edinburgh, King's Buildings, Edinburgh EH9 3FL, UK.
Jeffrey B JoyDepartment of Medicine, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC, Canada.
Andrew RambautInstitute of Evolutionary Biology, University of Edinburgh, King's Buildings, Edinburgh EH9 3FL, UK.ORCID 0000-0003-4337-3707
Marc A SuchardDepartment of Biomathematics, David Geffen School of Medicine, University of California Los Angeles, Los Angeles, CA 90095, USA. worobey@arizona.edu msuchard@ucla.edu jwertheim@health.ucsd.edu philippe.lemey@kuleuven.be.ORCID 0000-0001-9818-479X
Joel O WertheimDepartment of Medicine, University of California San Diego, La Jolla, CA 92093, USA. worobey@arizona.edu msuchard@ucla.edu jwertheim@health.ucsd.edu philippe.lemey@kuleuven.be.ORCID 0000-0003-4882-5856
Philippe LemeyKU Leuven Department of Microbiology, Immunology and Transplantation, Rega Institute, Laboratory of Clinical and Epidemiological Virology, Leuven, Belgium. worobey@arizona.edu msuchard@ucla.edu jwertheim@health.ucsd.edu philippe.lemey@kuleuven.be.ORCID 0000-0003-2826-5353

Funding

Technology CoreU19AI135995 · NIAID · SCRIPPS RESEARCH INSTITUTE, THE · PI Kristian Graugaard Andersen · 2018 to 2026
$32.0M
San Diego Biomedical Informatics Education & Research (SABER)T15LM011271 · NLM · UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA, SAN DIEGO · PI SHAMIM NEMATI · 2012 to 2026
$9.7M
Next-Generation Phylodynamics-targeted Partner Service Models for Combined HIV PreventionR01AI136056 · NIAID · UNIVERSITY OF CHICAGO · PI BENBOW, NANETTE DIOR, D'AQUILA, RICHARD · 2018 to 2022
$4.0M
Automation and Evaluation of Real-Time Transmission Network-Based HIV Prevention Services in New York CityR01AI135992 · NIAID · UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA, SAN DIEGO · PI WERTHEIM, JOEL OKRENT · 2018 to 2022
$3.6M
Public Health Implications of HIV Transmission NetworksK01AI110181 · NIAID · UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA, SAN DIEGO · PI WERTHEIM, JOEL OKRENT · 2014 to 2018
$668k
Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council BB/M010996/1NIAID NIH HHS K01 AI110181NIAID NIH HHS R01 AI135992NIAID NIH HHS R01 AI136056NIAID NIH HHS U19 AI135995NLM NIH HHS T15 LM011271Wellcome Trust
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Accurate understanding of the global spread of emerging viruses is critical for public health responses and for anticipating and preventing future outbreaks. Here we elucidate when, where, and how the earliest sustained severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) transmission networks became established in Europe and North America. Our results suggest that rapid early interventions successfully prevented early introductions of the virus from taking hold in Germany and the United States. Other, later introductions of the virus from China to both Italy and Washington state, United States, founded the earliest sustained European and North America transmission networks. Our analyses demonstrate the effectiveness of public health measures in preventing onward transmission and show that intensive testing and contact tracing could have prevented SARS-CoV-2 outbreaks from becoming established in these regions.

Indexed as

PhylogenyAir TravelBetacoronavirusChinaComputer SimulationContact TracingCoronavirus InfectionsCOVID-19Evolution, MolecularGenome, ViralGermanyHumansItalyMass ScreeningMutationPandemics

Identifiers

PMID32912998
PMCPMC7810038

What OpenQuestion holds

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LicenceCC BY
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.