ReviewBMJ global health2020
Predicted COVID-19 fatality rates based on age, sex, comorbidities and health system capacity.
Review in BMJ global health, 2020. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 58 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
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Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
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Who cites it
58 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.
- Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) excess mortality outcomes associated with pandemic effects study (COPES): A systematic review and meta-analysis.Frontiers in medicine · 2022Pooled it
- Geospatial modelling of COVID19 mortality in Oman using geographically weighted Poisson regression GWPR.Scientific reports · 2025Article
- Cost-Effectiveness of Introducing Nuvaxovid to COVID-19 Vaccination in the United Kingdom: A Dynamic Transmission Model.Vaccines · 2025Article
- The Impact of Healthcare Pressures on the COVID-19 Hospitalisation Fatality Risk in England.Journal of epidemiology and global health · 2024Observational
- Evaluation of the Global Health Security Index as a predictor of COVID-19 excess mortality standardised for under-reporting and age structure.BMJ global health · 2023Article
- The macroeconomics of pandemics around the world: Lives versus livelihoods revisited.Journal of development economics · 2023Article
- Study of optimal vaccination strategies for early COVID-19 pandemic using an age-structured mathematical model: A case study of the USA.Mathematical biosciences and engineering : MBE · 2023Article
- Exploring key-stakeholder perceptions on non-communicable disease care during the COVID-19 pandemic in Kenya.The Pan African medical journal · 2023Article
- The new combination of oxygen saturation with age shock index predicts the outcome of COVID-19 pneumonia.SAGE open medicine · 2023Article
- COVID-19 and income profile: How communities in the United States responded to mobility restrictions in the pandemic's early stages.Regional science policy & practice · 2022Article
- The Impact and Progression of the COVID-19 Pandemic in Bulgaria in Its First Two Years.Vaccines · 2022Article
- Epidemiology of SARS-CoV-2 during the first three waves in Scotland: a national record linkage study.Journal of epidemiology and community health · 2022Article
- Observational
- Paediatric COVID-19 mortality: a database analysis of the impact of health resource disparity.BMJ paediatrics open · 2022Article
- Association between the Human Development Index and Confirmed COVID-19 Cases by Country.Healthcare (Basel, Switzerland) · 2022Article
- Effectiveness of controlling COVID-19 epidemic by implementing soft lockdown policy and extensive community screening in Taiwan.Scientific reports · 2022Article
- Impact of vaccine hesitancy on secondary COVID-19 outbreaks in the US: an age-structured SIR model.BMC infectious diseases · 2022Article
- Assessment of the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on health services use.Public health in practice (Oxford, England) · 2022Article
- A framework for reconstructing SARS-CoV-2 transmission dynamics using excess mortality data.Nature communications · 2022Article
- Variation in the COVID-19 infection-fatality ratio by age, time, and geography during the pre-vaccine era: a systematic analysis.Lancet (London, England) · 2022Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
6 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
Early reports suggest the fatality rate from COVID-19 varies greatly across countries, but non-random testing and incomplete vital registration systems render it impossible to directly estimate the infection fatality rate (IFR) in many low- and middle-income countries. To fill this gap, we estimate the adjustments required to extrapolate estimates of the IFR from high-income to lower-income regions. Accounting for differences in the distribution of age, sex and relevant comorbidities yields substantial differences in the predicted IFR across 21 world regions, ranging from 0.11% in Western Sub-Saharan Africa to 1.07% for high-income Asia Pacific. However, these predictions must be treated as lower bounds in low- and middle-income countries as they are grounded in fatality rates from countries with advanced health systems. To adjust for health system capacity, we incorporate regional differences in the relative odds of infection fatality from childhood respiratory syncytial virus. This adjustment greatly diminishes but does not entirely erase the demography-based advantage predicted in the lowest income settings, with regional estimates of the predicted COVID-19 IFR ranging from 0.37% in Western Sub-Saharan Africa to 1.45% for Eastern Europe.
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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.