ArticleBMC medicine2020
Estimating indirect mortality impacts of armed conflict in civilian populations: panel regression analyses of 193 countries, 1990-2017.
Article in BMC medicine, 2020. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 36 papers.
What it found
Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.
The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.
Who cites it
36 citing papers in PubMed, 96 citations in OpenAlex.
- Survival analysis of post-war mortality in conflict-affected communities of Laelay Maichew Woreda, Tigray Region, Ethiopia.IJID regions · 2026Article
- Hospital system resilience in the face of armed conflicts; a cross sectional study from two regions in Lebanon.BMC health services research · 2026Observational
- Public perceptions of mortality studies in conflict-affected areas of the Eastern Mediterranean Region: an exploratory study.Conflict and health · 2026Article
- Civilian family members' deaths and perceived causes in war-torn Tigray, Ethiopia: modified poisson regression.Conflict and health · 2026Article
- Mortality Trends in Cancer of Unknown Primary Site in Serbia, 1990-2024: A Joinpoint Regression and Age-Period-Cohort Analysis.Epidemiologia (Basel, Switzerland) · 2026Article
- A multi-country epidemiological analysis of mortality from landmines and other explosive ordnance.Communications medicine · 2026Article
- Trends in Physician Emigration from Conflict-Affected Countries, 2006-2021.Journal of general internal medicine · 2026Article
- Impact of prolonged armed conflict on the patterns of emergency department visits.BMC emergency medicine · 2026Article
- From sex differences to sex inequalities in life expectancy: A cross-country observational benchmarking analysis.PLoS medicine · 2025Observational
- Epidemiology of acute myeloid leukemia in children and adolescents (1990-2021): a global burden of disease study.Die Naturwissenschaften · 2025Article
- When conflict meets political exclusion: Ethnicity, governance, and child mortality.SSM - population health · 2025Article
- Investing in the Advanced Practice Nursing Workforce to Improve Health System Responses to Armed Conflict.International nursing review · 2025Review
- A nationwide comparative analysis of the prevalance and determinants of non-communicable diseases risk factors between Jordanian and displaced Syrian populations.BMC public health · 2025Observational
- Association between conflict intensity and health outcomes in contemporary conflicts, while accounting for the vulnerability and functioning of healthcare services.Conflict and health · 2025Article
- Evacuating Patients With Pediatric Cancer From Ukraine: Impact on Medical Care Capacity in Poland.JCO global oncology · 2025Article
- The Impact of the Ukraine Conflict on the Quality of Life of the Young Population in Romania from a Societal Security Perspective.Healthcare (Basel, Switzerland) · 2025Article
- Syndemic geographic patterns of integrated diseases during the Libyan armed conflict; a new aspect for public health care intervention?Frontiers in epidemiology · 2025Article
- The impacts of war on health, human rights, and the environment-an overview.Frontiers in public health · 2025Review
- Bridging medical expertise in crisis: The development and implementation of a novel mobile application for Ukrainian physicians during wartime.Journal of global health · 2024Article
- Addressing abdominal trauma from conflict and warfare in under-resourced regions: A critical narrative review.Health science reports · 2024Article
Corrections and comments
PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.
Authors and funding
6 authors at 3 institutions in 1 country.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
backgroundArmed conflict can indirectly affect population health through detrimental impacts on political and social institutions and destruction of infrastructure. This study aimed to quantify indirect mortality impacts of armed conflict in civilian populations globally and explore differential effects by armed conflict characteristics and population groups.
methodsWe included 193 countries between 1990 and 2017 and constructed fixed effects panel regression models using data from the Uppsala Conflict Data Program and Global Burden of Disease study. Mortality rates were corrected to exclude battle-related deaths. We assessed separately four different armed conflict variables (capturing binary, continuous, categorical, and quintile exposures) and ran models by cause-specific mortality stratified by age groups and sex. Post-estimation analyses calculated the number of civilian deaths.
resultsWe identified 1118 unique armed conflicts. Armed conflict was associated with increases in civilian mortality-driven by conflicts categorised as wars. Wars were associated with an increase in age-standardised all-cause mortality of 81.5 per 100,000 population (β 81.5, 95% CI 14.3-148.8) in adjusted models contributing 29.4 million civilian deaths (95% CI 22.1-36.6) globally over the study period. Mortality rates from communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional diseases (β 51.3, 95% CI 2.6-99.9); non-communicable diseases (β 22.7, 95% CI 0.2-45.2); and injuries (β 7.6, 95% CI 3.4-11.7) associated with war increased, contributing 21.0 million (95% CI 16.3-25.6), 6.0 million (95% CI 4.1-8.0), and 2.4 million deaths (95% CI 1.7-3.1) respectively. War-associated increases in all-cause and cause-specific mortality were found across all age groups and both genders, but children aged 0-5 years had the largest relative increases in mortality.
conclusionsArmed conflict, particularly war, is associated with a substantial indirect mortality impact among civilians globally with children most severely burdened.
Indexed as
Identifiers
What OpenQuestion holds
Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.