ArticleNonlinear dynamics2020
Understanding COVID-19 nonlinear multi-scale dynamic spreading in Italy.
Article in Nonlinear dynamics, 2020. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 15 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
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Who cites it
15 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.
- Combining and comparing regional SARS-CoV-2 epidemic dynamics in Italy: Bayesian meta-analysis of compartmental models and global sensitivity analysis.Frontiers in public health · 2022Pooled it
- Fractional epidemic model of coronavirus disease with vaccination and crowding effects.Scientific reports · 2024Article
- Effects of environmental parameters and their interactions on the spreading of SARS-CoV-2 in North Italy under different social restrictions. A new approach based on multivariate analysis.Environmental research · 2022Article
- Differential evolution and particle swarm optimization against COVID-19.Artificial intelligence review · 2022Article
- Dynamical analysis of coronavirus disease with crowding effect, and vaccination: a study of third strain.Nonlinear dynamics · 2022Article
- In memory of Professor José António Tenreiro Machado (1957-2021).Nonlinear dynamics · 2022Article
- Stochastic forecasting of COVID-19 daily new cases across countries with a novel hybrid time series model.Nonlinear dynamics · 2022Article
- Study of COVID-19 epidemiological evolution in India with a multi-wave SIR model.Nonlinear dynamics · 2022Article
- A linear dynamical perspective on epidemiology: interplay between early COVID-19 outbreak and human mobility.Nonlinear dynamics · 2022Article
- A proposed fractional dynamic system and Monte Carlo-based back analysis for simulating the spreading profile of COVID-19.The European physical journal. Special topics · 2022Article
- Using awareness to Z-control a SEIR model with overexposure: Insights on Covid-19 pandemic.Chaos, solitons, and fractals · 2021Article
- Managing awareness can avoid hysteresis in disease spread: an application to coronavirus Covid-19.Chaos, solitons, and fractals · 2021Article
- Synchronized nonpharmaceutical interventions for the control of COVID-19.Nonlinear dynamics · 2021Article
- The first wave of the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic in Tuscany (Italy): A SI2R2D compartmental model with uncertainty evaluation.PloS one · 2021Article
- Optimization in the Context of COVID-19 Prediction and Control: A Literature Review.IEEE access : practical innovations, open solutions · 2021Article
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5 authors.
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No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
The outbreak of COVID-19 in Italy took place in Lombardia, a densely populated and highly industrialized northern region, and spread across the northern and central part of Italy according to quite different temporal and spatial patterns. In this work, a multi-scale territorial analysis of the pandemic is carried out using various models and data-driven approaches. Specifically, a logistic regression is employed to capture the evolution of the total positive cases in each region and throughout Italy, and an enhanced version of a SIR-type model is tuned to fit the different territorial epidemic dynamics via a differential evolution algorithm. Hierarchical clustering and multidimensional analysis are further exploited to reveal the similarities/dissimilarities of the remarkably different geographical epidemic developments. The combination of parametric identifications and multi-scale data-driven analyses paves the way toward a closer understanding of the nonlinear, spatially nonuniform epidemic spreading in Italy.
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