Evidence map›Paper›PMID 32904246›Full record

ArticleNPJ digital medicine2020

Predicting risk of late age-related macular degeneration using deep learning.

Yifan Peng, Tiarnan D Keenan, Qingyu Chen, Elvira Agrón, Alexis Allot, Wai T Wong, Emily Y Chew, Zhiyong Lu

Open access · goldAbstract read
In one paragraph

Article in NPJ digital medicine, 2020. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 44 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
44citing papers in PubMed
3.8field-weighted citation impact, top 5% of its field
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

44 citing papers in PubMed, 65 citations in OpenAlex.

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  10. AMD-Mamba: A Phenotype-Aware Multi-modal Framework for Robust AMD Prognosis.Machine learning in medical imaging. MLMI (Workshop) · 2026
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  16. tdCoxSNN: Time-dependent Cox survival neural network for continuous-time dynamic prediction.Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series C, Applied statistics · 2025
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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

8 authors at 1 institution in 1 country.

Yifan Peng *National Center for Biotechnology Information (NCBI), National Library of Medicine (NLM), National Institutes of Health (NIH), Bethesda, MD USA.ORCID 0000-0001-9309-8331
Tiarnan D Keenan *National Eye Institute (NEI), National Institutes of Health (NIH), Bethesda, MD USA.ORCID 0000-0002-2253-1772
Qingyu ChenNational Center for Biotechnology Information (NCBI), National Library of Medicine (NLM), National Institutes of Health (NIH), Bethesda, MD USA.
Elvira AgrónNational Eye Institute (NEI), National Institutes of Health (NIH), Bethesda, MD USA.
Alexis AllotNational Center for Biotechnology Information (NCBI), National Library of Medicine (NLM), National Institutes of Health (NIH), Bethesda, MD USA.
Wai T WongNational Eye Institute (NEI), National Institutes of Health (NIH), Bethesda, MD USA.
Emily Y ChewNational Eye Institute (NEI), National Institutes of Health (NIH), Bethesda, MD USA.ORCID 0000-0003-0999-9802
Zhiyong LuNational Center for Biotechnology Information (NCBI), National Library of Medicine (NLM), National Institutes of Health (NIH), Bethesda, MD USA.
National Institutes of Health · US

Funding

A framework to enhance radiology structured report by invoking NLP and DL: Models and ApplicationsR00LM013001 · NLM · WEILL MEDICAL COLL OF CORNELL UNIV · PI PENG, YIFAN · 2020 to 2022
$710k
NLM NIH HHS R00 LM013001
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

By 2040, age-related macular degeneration (AMD) will affect ~288 million people worldwide. Identifying individuals at high risk of progression to late AMD, the sight-threatening stage, is critical for clinical actions, including medical interventions and timely monitoring. Although deep learning has shown promise in diagnosing/screening AMD using color fundus photographs, it remains difficult to predict individuals' risks of late AMD accurately. For both tasks, these initial deep learning attempts have remained largely unvalidated in independent cohorts. Here, we demonstrate how deep learning and survival analysis can predict the probability of progression to late AMD using 3298 participants (over 80,000 images) from the Age-Related Eye Disease Studies AREDS and AREDS2, the largest longitudinal clinical trials in AMD. When validated against an independent test data set of 601 participants, our model achieved high prognostic accuracy (5-year

Indexed as

Eye manifestationsImage processingMachine learningPrognostic markers

Identifiers

PMID32904246
PMCPMC7453007
OpenAlexW3080237389

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
LicenceCC BY
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.