Evidence map›Paper›PMID 32903584›Full record

ArticleFrontiers in public health2020

Modeling the Onset of Symptoms of COVID-19.

Joseph R Larsen, Margaret R Martin, John D Martin, Peter Kuhn, James B Hicks

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Frontiers in public health, 2020. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 92 papers, 5 of them syntheses that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
92citing papers in PubMed, 5 pooled it
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

92 citing papers in PubMed, 5 syntheses or guidelines pooled it.

  1. Pooled it
  2. Pooled it
  3. Pooled it
  4. Pooled it
  5. Pooled it
  6. Trial
  7. Trial
  8. Cellular Metabolic Signatures of Long COVID-19.Infectious disease reports · 2026
    Article
  9. Article
  10. Article
  11. Article
  12. Article
  13. Article
  14. Long COVID-19: A Concept Analysis.Infectious disease reports · 2025
    Article
  15. Observational
  16. Lithium in the time of COVID: forever vigilant.International journal of bipolar disorders · 2024
    Article
  17. Article
  18. Article
  19. Determination of the Relationship between Globus-Type Complaints and COVID-19 Anxiety in Adult Cases with COVID-19.Folia phoniatrica et logopaedica : official organ of the International Association of Logopedics and Phoniatrics (IALP) · 2024
    Article
  20. Review

32 more citing papers are in PubMed but not listed here.

4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

5 authors.

Joseph R LarsenQuantitative and Computational Biology, Department of Biological Science, University of Southern California, Los Angeles, CA, United States.
Margaret R MartinNexus Development PA LLC, Redwood City, CA, United States.
John D MartinNanoCarrier Co., Ltd., Chiba, Japan.
Peter KuhnUSC Michelson Center for Convergent Bioscience, University of Southern California, Los Angeles, CA, United States.
James B HicksUSC Michelson Center for Convergent Bioscience, University of Southern California, Los Angeles, CA, United States.

Funding

USC/NORRIS COMPREHENSIVE CANCER CENTER (CORE) SUPPORTP30CA014089 · NCI · UNIVERSITY OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA · PI Fumito Ito · 1985 to 2026
$181.4M
TopologyU54CA143906 · NCI · UNIVERSITY OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA · PI KUHN, PETER · 2009 to 2014
$10.2M
NCI NIH HHS P30 CA014089NCI NIH HHS U54 CA143906
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

COVID-19 is a pandemic viral disease with catastrophic global impact. This disease is more contagious than influenza such that cluster outbreaks occur frequently. If patients with symptoms quickly underwent testing and contact tracing, these outbreaks could be contained. Unfortunately, COVID-19 patients have symptoms similar to other common illnesses. Here, we hypothesize the order of symptom occurrence could help patients and medical professionals more quickly distinguish COVID-19 from other respiratory diseases, yet such essential information is largely unavailable. To this end, we apply a Markov Process to a graded partially ordered set based on clinical observations of COVID-19 cases to ascertain the most likely order of discernible symptoms (i.e., fever, cough, nausea/vomiting, and diarrhea) in COVID-19 patients. We then compared the progression of these symptoms in COVID-19 to other respiratory diseases, such as influenza, SARS, and MERS, to observe if the diseases present differently. Our model predicts that influenza initiates with cough, whereas COVID-19 like other coronavirus-related diseases initiates with fever. However, COVID-19 differs from SARS and MERS in the order of gastrointestinal symptoms. Our results support the notion that fever should be used to screen for entry into facilities as regions begin to reopen after the outbreak of Spring 2020. Additionally, our findings suggest that good clinical practice should involve recording the order of symptom occurrence in COVID-19 and other diseases. If such a systemic clinical practice had been standard since ancient diseases, perhaps the transition from local outbreak to pandemic could have been avoided.

Indexed as

COVID-19Models, BiologicalPandemicsHumansMarkov ChainsCOVID-19diseaseinfluenzaMarkovmodelprobabilitystochasticsymptoms

Identifiers

PMID32903584
PMCPMC7438535

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
LicenceCC BY
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.