Evidence map›Paper›PMID 32900923›Full record

ArticleProceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America2020

Strong spatial embedding of social networks generates nonstandard epidemic dynamics independent of degree distribution and clustering.

David J Haw, Rachael Pung, Jonathan M Read, Steven Riley

Open access · hybridAbstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 2020. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 6 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
6citing papers in PubMed
0.4field-weighted citation impact, top 30% of its field
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

6 citing papers in PubMed, 17 citations in OpenAlex.

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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

4 authors at 2 institutions in 1 country.

David J HawMedical Research Council Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London W2 1PG, United Kingdom.ORCID 0000-0002-9228-0542
Rachael PungMedical Research Council Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London W2 1PG, United Kingdom.
Jonathan M ReadCentre for Health Informatics Computing and Statistics, Lancaster Medical School, Lancaster University, Lancaster LA1 4YW, United Kingdom.
Steven RileyMedical Research Council Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London W2 1PG, United Kingdom; s.riley@imperial.ac.uk.ORCID 0000-0001-7904-4804
Imperial College London · GBLancaster University · GB

Funding

Models for synthesising molecular, clinical and epidemiological data, and translaU01GM110721 · NIGMS · IMPERIAL COLLEGE OF SCIENCE, TECHNOLOGY AND MEDICINE · PI CAUCHEMEZ, SIMON, FERGUSON, NEIL MORRIS · 2014 to 2018
$1.9M
Department of HealthMedical Research Council MC_PC_19012Medical Research Council MR/J008761/1Medical Research Council MR/R015600/1NIGMS NIH HHS U01 GM110721Wellcome TrustWellcome Trust 200187/Z/15/ZWellcome Trust 200861/Z/16/Z
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Some directly transmitted human pathogens, such as influenza and measles, generate sustained exponential growth in incidence and have a high peak incidence consistent with the rapid depletion of susceptible individuals. Many do not. While a prolonged exponential phase typically arises in traditional disease-dynamic models, current quantitative descriptions of nonstandard epidemic profiles are either abstract, phenomenological, or rely on highly skewed offspring distributions in network models. Here, we create large socio-spatial networks to represent contact behavior using human population-density data, a previously developed fitting algorithm, and gravity-like mobility kernels. We define a basic reproductive number [Formula: see text] for this system, analogous to that used for compartmental models. Controlling for [Formula: see text], we then explore networks with a household-workplace structure in which between-household contacts can be formed with varying degrees of spatial correlation, determined by a single parameter from the gravity-like kernel. By varying this single parameter and simulating epidemic spread, we are able to identify how more frequent local movement can lead to strong spatial correlation and, thus, induce subexponential outbreak dynamics with lower, later epidemic peaks. Also, the ratio of peak height to final size was much smaller when movement was highly spatially correlated. We investigate the topological properties of our networks via a generalized clustering coefficient that extends beyond immediate neighborhoods, identifying very strong correlations between fourth-order clustering and nonstandard epidemic dynamics. Our results motivate the observation of both incidence and socio-spatial human behavior during epidemics that exhibit nonstandard incidence patterns.

Indexed as

Models, BiologicalSocial NetworkingAlgorithmsCluster AnalysisComputer SimulationEpidemicsFamily CharacteristicsHumansIncidenceMedical InformaticsPopulation Densityclusteringepidemicsnetworkssubexponential

Identifiers

PMID32900923
PMCPMC7519285
OpenAlexW3083988257

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
LicenceCC BY
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.