ArticleProceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America2020
Strong spatial embedding of social networks generates nonstandard epidemic dynamics independent of degree distribution and clustering.
Article in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 2020. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 6 papers.
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Who cites it
6 citing papers in PubMed, 17 citations in OpenAlex.
- First- and second-order social contact network structure in southern China.Journal of the Royal Society, Interface · 2025Article
- Estimating the effect of contact tracing during the early stage of an epidemic.Infectious Disease Modelling · 2025Article
- Testing and Treatment Interventions in Community Settings Key to Controlling a Recent Human Immunodeficiency Virus Outbreak Among People Who Inject Drugs in Glasgow: A Modeling Study.The Journal of infectious diseases · 2024Article
- Estimation of the relationship between meteorological factors and measles using spatiotemporal Bayesian model in Shandong Province, China.BMC public health · 2023Article
- Decoding the underlying mechanisms of Di-Tan-Decoction in treating intracerebral hemorrhage based on network pharmacology.BMC complementary medicine and therapies · 2023Article
- Data needs for integrated economic-epidemiological models of pandemic mitigation policies.Epidemics · 2022Article
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Authors and funding
4 authors at 2 institutions in 1 country.
Funding
Abstract
Some directly transmitted human pathogens, such as influenza and measles, generate sustained exponential growth in incidence and have a high peak incidence consistent with the rapid depletion of susceptible individuals. Many do not. While a prolonged exponential phase typically arises in traditional disease-dynamic models, current quantitative descriptions of nonstandard epidemic profiles are either abstract, phenomenological, or rely on highly skewed offspring distributions in network models. Here, we create large socio-spatial networks to represent contact behavior using human population-density data, a previously developed fitting algorithm, and gravity-like mobility kernels. We define a basic reproductive number [Formula: see text] for this system, analogous to that used for compartmental models. Controlling for [Formula: see text], we then explore networks with a household-workplace structure in which between-household contacts can be formed with varying degrees of spatial correlation, determined by a single parameter from the gravity-like kernel. By varying this single parameter and simulating epidemic spread, we are able to identify how more frequent local movement can lead to strong spatial correlation and, thus, induce subexponential outbreak dynamics with lower, later epidemic peaks. Also, the ratio of peak height to final size was much smaller when movement was highly spatially correlated. We investigate the topological properties of our networks via a generalized clustering coefficient that extends beyond immediate neighborhoods, identifying very strong correlations between fourth-order clustering and nonstandard epidemic dynamics. Our results motivate the observation of both incidence and socio-spatial human behavior during epidemics that exhibit nonstandard incidence patterns.
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