ArticlePhilosophical transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological sciences2020
Impact of extreme weather conditions on European crop production in 2018.
Article in Philosophical transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological sciences, 2020. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 37 papers.
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37 citing papers in PubMed.
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- The Impact of Environmental Degradation on Agricultural Crop Productivity: The Case of Pakistan With Simulated ARDL Approach.Food science & nutrition · 2025Article
- Modeling impacts of climate-induced yield variability and adaptations on wheat and maize in a sub-tropical monsoon climate - using fuzzy logic.Scientific reports · 2025Article
- Effects of the 2018 European summer heatwave on the incidence of sporadic bacterial gastroenteritis in a temperate maritime climate region (Republic of Ireland).One health (Amsterdam, Netherlands) · 2025Article
- The Dynamics of Shannon Entropy in Analyzing Climate Variability for Modeling Temperature and Precipitation Uncertainty in Poland.Entropy (Basel, Switzerland) · 2025Article
- Assessing the capacity of agricultural research and development to increase the stability of global crop yields under climate change.PNAS nexus · 2025Article
- Exploring physiological and molecular dynamics of drought stress responses in plants: challenges and future directions.Frontiers in plant science · 2025Review
- The impact of climate variability on agricultural employment in Mexico from 1980-2017.PloS one · 2025Article
- Untargeted mutagenesis of brassinosteroid receptor SbBRI1 confers drought tolerance by altering phenylpropanoid metabolism in Sorghum bicolor.Plant biotechnology journal · 2024Article
- Hypoxia increases triacylglycerol levels and unsaturation in tomato roots.BMC plant biology · 2024Article
- Drastic increase in the magnitude of very rare summer-mean vapor pressure deficit extremes.Nature communications · 2024Article
- A hybrid reanalysis-forecast meteorological forcing data for advancing climate adaptation in agriculture.Scientific data · 2024Article
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- The Effect of Inorganic Nitrogen Fertilizers on the Quality of Forage Composed of Various Species of Legumes in the Northern Part of a Temperate Climate Zone.Plants (Basel, Switzerland) · 2023Article
- Engaging Precision Phenotyping to Scrutinize Vegetative Drought Tolerance and Recovery in Chickpea Plant Genetic Resources.Plants (Basel, Switzerland) · 2023Article
- Dynamics of Polyamines, Proline, and Ethylene Metabolism under Increasing Cold in Winter Oilseed Rape.International journal of molecular sciences · 2023Article
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5 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
Extreme weather increases the risk of large-scale crop failure. The mechanisms involved are complex and intertwined, hence undermining the identification of simple adaptation levers to help improve the resilience of agricultural production. Based on more than 82 000 yield data reported at the regional level in 17 European countries, we assess how climate affected the yields of nine crop species. Using machine learning models, we analyzed historical yield data since 1901 and then focus on 2018, which has experienced a multiplicity and a diversity of atypical extreme climatic conditions. Machine learning models explain up to 65% of historical yield anomalies. We find that both extremes in temperature and precipitation are associated with negative yield anomalies, but with varying impacts in different parts of Europe. In 2018, Northern and Eastern Europe experienced multiple and simultaneous crop failures-among the highest observed in recent decades. These yield losses were associated with extremely low rainfalls in combination with high temperatures between March and August 2018. However, the higher than usual yields recorded in Southern Europe-caused by favourable spring rainfall conditions-nearly offset the large decrease in Northern European crop production. Our results outline the importance of considering single and compound climate extremes to analyse the causes of yield losses in Europe. We found no clear upward or downward trend in the frequency of extreme yield losses for any of the considered crops between 1990 and 2018. This article is part of the theme issue 'Impacts of the 2018 severe drought and heatwave in Europe: from site to continental scale'.
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