ArticleBulletin of mathematical biology2020
Optimal Control of the COVID-19 Pandemic with Non-pharmaceutical Interventions.
Article in Bulletin of mathematical biology, 2020. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 61 papers.
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Who cites it
61 citing papers in PubMed, 195 citations in OpenAlex.
- Optimizing infectious disease mitigation under dynamic conditions.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2026Article
- A Multi-Region SEIR Model Incorporating Inter-County Mobility and Time-Dependent Transmission Dynamics: Application to COVID-19 Disease Outbreak Data in North Carolina.Bulletin of mathematical biology · 2026Article
- Toward Setting Minimum and Optimal Data to Report for Malaria Molecular Surveillance with Targeted Sequencing: The "What" and "Why".The American journal of tropical medicine and hygiene · 2025Article
- Smart epidemic control: A hybrid model blending ODEs and agent-based simulations for optimal, real-world intervention planning.PLoS computational biology · 2025Article
- From node to network: weaving a global perspective on efficacy and costs of non-pharmaceutical interventions.Scientific reports · 2025Article
- Quantifying the Regional Disproportionality of COVID-19 Spread: Modeling Study.JMIR formative research · 2025Article
- Variant patterns and influence of inter-regional travel during the SARS-CoV-2 expansion in South Africa.PloS one · 2025Article
- On optimal control at the onset of a new viral outbreak.Infectious Disease Modelling · 2024Article
- The optimal spatially-dependent control measures to effectively and economically eliminate emerging infectious diseases.PLoS computational biology · 2024Article
- Agent-based modeling to estimate the impact of lockdown scenarios and events on a pandemic exemplified on SARS-CoV-2.Scientific reports · 2024Article
- Optimal social distancing in epidemic control: cost prioritization, adherence and insights into preparedness principles.Scientific reports · 2024Article
- Cost-effectiveness analysis of COVID-19 intervention policies using a mathematical model: an optimal control approach.Scientific reports · 2024Article
- Optimal approaches for COVID-19 control: the use of vaccines and lockdowns across societal groups.Frontiers in epidemiology · 2024Article
- Optimized numerical solutions of SIRDVW multiage model controlling SARS-CoV-2 vaccine roll out: An application to the Italian scenario.Infectious Disease Modelling · 2023Article
- Optimal strategies for coordinating infection control and socio-economic activities.Mathematics and computers in simulation · 2023Article
- Optimal non-pharmaceutical pandemic response strategies depend critically on time horizons and costs.Scientific reports · 2023Article
- Modeling COVID-19 Transmission Dynamics: A Bibliometric Review.International journal of environmental research and public health · 2022Review
- Use and design of public green spaces in Serbian cities during the COVID-19 pandemic.Habitat international · 2022Article
- State-controlled epidemic in a game against a novel pathogen.Scientific reports · 2022Article
- Model Dynamics and Optimal Control for Intervention Policy of COVID-19 Epidemic with Quarantine and Immigrating Disturbances.Bulletin of mathematical biology · 2022Article
1 more citing papers are in PubMed but not listed here.
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Authors and funding
2 authors at 1 institution in 1 country.
Funding
Abstract
The COVID-19 pandemic has forced societies across the world to resort to social distancing to slow the spread of the SARS-CoV-2 virus. Due to the economic impacts of social distancing, there is growing desire to relax these measures. To characterize a range of possible strategies for control and to understand their consequences, we performed an optimal control analysis of a mathematical model of SARS-CoV-2 transmission. Given that the pandemic is already underway and controls have already been initiated, we calibrated our model to data from the USA and focused our analysis on optimal controls from May 2020 through December 2021. We found that a major factor that differentiates strategies that prioritize lives saved versus reduced time under control is how quickly control is relaxed once social distancing restrictions expire in May 2020. Strategies that maintain control at a high level until at least summer 2020 allow for tapering of control thereafter and minimal deaths, whereas strategies that relax control in the short term lead to fewer options for control later and a higher likelihood of exceeding hospital capacity. Our results also highlight that the potential scope for controlling COVID-19 until a vaccine is available depends on epidemiological parameters about which there is still considerable uncertainty, including the basic reproduction number and the effectiveness of social distancing. In light of those uncertainties, our results do not constitute a quantitative forecast and instead provide a qualitative portrayal of possible outcomes from alternative approaches to control.
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Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.