Evidence map›Paper›PMID 32887799›Full record

ArticleProceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America2020

Stacking models for nearly optimal link prediction in complex networks.

Amir Ghasemian, Homa Hosseinmardi, Aram Galstyan, Edoardo M Airoldi, Aaron Clauset

Open access · greenAbstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 2020. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 29 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
29citing papers in PubMed
11.7field-weighted citation impact, top 1% of its field
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

29 citing papers in PubMed, 148 citations in OpenAlex.

  1. Predictability of complex networks.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2026
    Article
  2. Coupled machine learning-ecosystem ensemble models substantially improve predictions of nitrous oxide (NProceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2026
    Article
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  12. Link prediction using low-dimensional node embeddings: The measurement problem.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2024
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  17. Abstract cognitive maps of social network structure aid adaptive inference.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2023
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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

5 authors at 3 institutions in 1 country.

Amir GhasemianDepartment of Computer Science, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO 80309; amir.ghasemianlangroodi@colorado.edu aaron.clauset@colorado.edu.ORCID 0000-0002-3515-3504
Homa HosseinmardiInformation Sciences Institute, University of Southern California, Marina del Rey, CA 90292.
Aram GalstyanInformation Sciences Institute, University of Southern California, Marina del Rey, CA 90292.
Edoardo M AiroldiDepartment of Statistics, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA 02138.ORCID 0000-0002-3512-0542
Aaron ClausetDepartment of Computer Science, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO 80309; amir.ghasemianlangroodi@colorado.edu aaron.clauset@colorado.edu.ORCID 0000-0002-3529-8746
University of Southern California · USHarvard University · USSanta Fe Institute · US

Funding

A High-memory Supercomputer for Proteomics, Text Mining and Microbiome ResearchS10OD012300 · OD · UNIVERSITY OF COLORADO · PI AHN, NATALIE G. · 2013 to 2013
$1.9M
NIH HHS S10 OD012300
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Most real-world networks are incompletely observed. Algorithms that can accurately predict which links are missing can dramatically speed up network data collection and improve network model validation. Many algorithms now exist for predicting missing links, given a partially observed network, but it has remained unknown whether a single best predictor exists, how link predictability varies across methods and networks from different domains, and how close to optimality current methods are. We answer these questions by systematically evaluating 203 individual link predictor algorithms, representing three popular families of methods, applied to a large corpus of 550 structurally diverse networks from six scientific domains. We first show that individual algorithms exhibit a broad diversity of prediction errors, such that no one predictor or family is best, or worst, across all realistic inputs. We then exploit this diversity using network-based metalearning to construct a series of "stacked" models that combine predictors into a single algorithm. Applied to a broad range of synthetic networks, for which we may analytically calculate optimal performance, these stacked models achieve optimal or nearly optimal levels of accuracy. Applied to real-world networks, stacked models are superior, but their accuracy varies strongly by domain, suggesting that link prediction may be fundamentally easier in social networks than in biological or technological networks. These results indicate that the state of the art for link prediction comes from combining individual algorithms, which can achieve nearly optimal predictions. We close with a brief discussion of limitations and opportunities for further improvements.

Indexed as

Machine LearningNeural Networks, ComputerHumansModels, StatisticalPredictive Value of TestsSocial Networkinglink predictionmetalearningnear optimalitynetworksstacking

Identifiers

PMID32887799
PMCPMC7519231
OpenAlexW3083421733

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.