Evidence map›Paper›PMID 32882434›Full record

SynthesisInternational journal of infectious diseases : IJID : official publication of the International Society for Infectious Diseases2020

Estimation of global case fatality rate of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) using meta-analyses: Comparison between calendar date and days since the outbreak of the first confirmed case.

Ramy Abou Ghayda, Keum Hwa Lee, Young Joo Han, Seohyun Ryu, Sung Hwi Hong, Sojung Yoon, Gwang Hun Jeong, Jinhee Lee, Jun Young Lee, Jae Won Yang and 10 more

Abstract readMeta-Analysis
In one paragraph

Synthesis in International journal of infectious diseases : IJID : official publication of the International Society for Infectious Diseases, 2020. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 26 papers, 2 of them syntheses that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
26citing papers in PubMed, 2 pooled it
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

26 citing papers in PubMed, 2 syntheses or guidelines pooled it.

  1. Pooled it
  2. Pooled it
  3. Review
  4. Article
  5. Article
  6. Article
  7. Article
  8. Article
  9. Article
  10. Article
  11. Review
  12. Article
  13. Current State of COVID-19 Pandemic in Africa: Lessons for Today and the Future.International journal of environmental research and public health · 2021
    Observational
  14. Article
  15. Article
  16. Article
  17. Article
  18. Regional Variability in COVID-19 Case Fatality Rate in Canada, February-December 2020.International journal of environmental research and public health · 2021
    Article
  19. Article
  20. Article
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

20 authors.

Ramy Abou GhaydaDepartment of Global Health and Population, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Boston, MA, USA; Division of Urology, Brigham and Women's Hospital, and Harvard Medical School, Boston, MA, USA.
Keum Hwa LeeDepartment of Pediatrics, Yonsei University College of Medicine, Seoul, Republic of Korea.
Young Joo HanDepartment of Pediatrics, Samsung Changwon Hospital, Sungkyunkwan University School of Medicine, Changwon, Republic of Korea.
Seohyun RyuYonsei University College of Medicine, Seoul, Republic of Korea.
Sung Hwi HongDepartment of Global Health and Population, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Boston, MA, USA; Yonsei University College of Medicine, Seoul, Republic of Korea.
Sojung YoonYonsei University College of Medicine, Seoul, Republic of Korea.
Gwang Hun JeongCollege of Medicine, Gyeongsang National University, Jinju, Republic of Korea.
Jinhee LeeDepartment of Psychiatry, Yonsei University Wonju College of Medicine, Wonju, Republic of Korea.
Jun Young LeeDepartment of Nephrology, Yonsei University Wonju College of Medicine, Wonju, Republic of Korea.
Jae Won YangDepartment of Nephrology, Yonsei University Wonju College of Medicine, Wonju, Republic of Korea.
Maria EffenbergerDepartment of Internal Medicine I, Gastroenterology, Hepatology, Endocrinology & Metabolism, Medical University Innsbruck, Innsbruck, Austria.
Michael EisenhutLuton & Dunstable University Hospital NHS Foundation Trust, Luton, United Kingdom.
Andreas KronbichlerDepartment of Internal Medicine IV, Nephrology and Hypertension, Medical University Innsbruck, Innsbruck, Austria.
Marco SolmiNeurosciences Department, University of Padua, Padua, Italy; Padua Neuroscience Center, Padua, Italy.
Han LiUniversity of Florida College of Medicine, Gainesville, FL 32610, USA.
Louis JacobFaculty of Medicine, University of Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines, Montigny-le-Bretonneux, 78180, Versailles, France; Research and Development Unit, Parc Sanitari Sant Joan de Déu, CIBERSAM, Dr. Antoni Pujadas, 42, Sant Boi de Llobregat, 08830, Barcelona, Spain.
Ai KoyanagiResearch and Development Unit, Parc Sanitari Sant Joan de Déu, CIBERSAM, Dr. Antoni Pujadas, 42, Sant Boi de Llobregat, 08830, Barcelona, Spain; ICREA, Pg. Lluis Companys 23, Barcelona, Spain.
Joaquim RaduaInstitut d'Investigacions Biomèdiques August Pi i Sunyer (IDIBAPS), 08036 Barcelona, Spain; Department of Psychosis Studies, Institute of Psychiatry, Psychology, and Neuroscience, King's College London, London E5 8AF, UK; Centre for Psychiatric Research, Department of Clinical Neuroscience, Karolinska Institutet, 113 30 Stockholm, Sweden.
Jae Il ShinDepartment of Pediatrics, Yonsei University College of Medicine, Seoul, Republic of Korea. Electronic address: shinji@yuhs.ac.
Lee SmithThe Cambridge Centre for Sport and Exercise Sciences, Anglia Ruskin University, Cambridge, CB1 1PT, UK.

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

objectiveSince the outbreak of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in December of 2019 in China, estimating the pandemic's case fatality rate (CFR) has been the focus and interest of many stakeholders. In this manuscript, we prove that the method of using the cumulative CFR is static and does not reflect the trend according to the daily change per unit of time.

methodsA proportion meta-analysis was carried out on the CFR in every country reporting COVID-19 cases. Based on these results, we performed a meta-analysis for a global COVID-19 CFR. Each analysis was performed using two different calculations of CFR: according to the calendar date and according to the days since the outbreak of the first confirmed case. We thus explored an innovative and original calculation of CFR, concurrently based on the date of the first confirmed case as well as on a daily basis.

resultsFor the first time, we showed that using meta-analyses according to the calendar date and days since the outbreak of the first confirmed case, were different.

conclusionWe propose that a CFR according to days since the outbreak of the first confirmed case might be a better predictor of the current CFR of COVID-19 and its kinetics.

Indexed as

COVID-19Global HealthHumansPandemicsSARS-CoV-2Calendar dateCase fatality rateCOVID-19Days since the first confirmed caseProportion meta-analysis

Identifiers

PMID32882434
PMCPMC7462556

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.