Evidence map›Paper›PMID 32882043›Full record

ArticleThe Journal of infectious diseases2021

Projected Impact of Concurrently Available Long-Acting Injectable and Daily-Oral Human Immunodeficiency Virus Preexposure Prophylaxis: A Mathematical Model.

Kevin M Maloney, Adrien Le Guillou, Robert A Driggers, Supriya Sarkar, Emeli J Anderson, Amyn A Malik, Samuel M Jenness

Open access · bronzeAbstract read
In one paragraph

Article in The Journal of infectious diseases, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 28 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
28citing papers in PubMed, 1 pooled it
0.6field-weighted citation impact, top 20% of its field
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

28 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it, 34 citations in OpenAlex.

  1. A Review of Network Models for HIV Spread.Journal of acquired immune deficiency syndromes (1999) · 2025
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  13. Exploring Willingness to Use Long-Acting Injectable PrEP Among Sexual and Gender Minoritized People Accessing Pharmacies.AIDS education and prevention : official publication of the International Society for AIDS Education · 2025
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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

7 authors at 1 institution in 2 countries.

Kevin M MaloneyDepartment of Epidemiology, Emory University, Atlanta, Georgia, USA.
Adrien Le GuillouDepartment of Epidemiology, Emory University, Atlanta, Georgia, USA.
Robert A DriggersDepartment of Epidemiology, Emory University, Atlanta, Georgia, USA.
Supriya SarkarDepartment of Epidemiology, Emory University, Atlanta, Georgia, USA.
Emeli J AndersonDepartment of Epidemiology, Emory University, Atlanta, Georgia, USA.
Amyn A MalikDepartment of Epidemiology, Emory University, Atlanta, Georgia, USA.
Samuel M JennessDepartment of Epidemiology, Emory University, Atlanta, Georgia, USA.
Emory University · US

Funding

Virology and Molecular Biomarkers CoreP30AI050409 · NIAID · EMORY UNIVERSITY · PI Ann M Chahroudi, Colleen F Kelley · 2002 to 2026
$74.0M
EpiModel 2.0: Integrated Network Models for HIV/STI Prevention ScienceR01AI138783 · NIAID · EMORY UNIVERSITY · PI JENNESS, SAMUEL · 2018 to 2021
$3.0M
Modeling Antiretroviral-Based Prevention among MSM in the USR21MH112449 · NIMH · EMORY UNIVERSITY · PI JENNESS, SAMUEL · 2017 to 2018
$442k
NIAID NIH HHS P30 AI050409NIAID NIH HHS R01 AI138783NIMH NIH HHS R21 MH112449
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

backgroundLong-acting injectable (LAI) human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) preexposure prophylaxis (PrEP) is reportedly efficacious, although full trial results have not been published. We used a dynamic network model of HIV transmission among men who have sex with men to assess the population impact of LAI-PrEP when available concurrently with daily-oral (DO) PrEP.

methodsThe reference model represents the current HIV epidemiology and DO-PrEP coverage (15% among those with behavioral indications for PrEP) among men who have sex with men in the southeastern United States. Primary analyses investigated varied PrEP uptake and proportion selecting LAI-PrEP. Secondary analyses evaluated uncertainty in pharmacokinetic efficacy and LAI-PrEP persistence relative to DO-PrEP.

resultsCompared with the reference scenario, if 50% chose LAI-PrEP, 4.3% (95% simulation interval, -7.3% to 14.5%) of infections would be averted over 10 years. The impact of LAI-PrEP is slightly greater than that of the DO-PrEP-only regimen, based on assumptions of higher adherence and partial protection after discontinuation. If the total PrEP initiation rate doubled, 17.1% (95% simulation interval, 6.7%-26.4%) of infections would be averted. The highest population-level impact occurred when LAI-PrEP uptake and persistence improved.

conclusionsIf LAI-PrEP replaces DO-PrEP, its availability will modestly improve the population impact. LAI-PrEP will make a more substantial impact if its availability drives higher total PrEP coverage, or if persistence is greater for LAI-PrEP.

Indexed as

Drug MonitoringAdministration, OralAnti-HIV AgentsHIV InfectionsHumansIncidenceInjectionsMaleMedication AdherenceModels, TheoreticalPre-Exposure ProphylaxisPrevalenceSexual and Gender MinoritiesAnti-HIV AgentsHIVmathematical modelmen who have sex with menpreexposure prophylaxissexual network

Identifiers

PMID32882043
PMCPMC7781468
OpenAlexW3083104273

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.