Evidence map›Paper›PMID 32879311›Full record

ArticleNature communications2020

Yield reduction under climate warming varies among wheat cultivars in South Africa.

Aaron M Shew, Jesse B Tack, Lawton L Nalley, Petronella Chaminuka

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Nature communications, 2020. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 32 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
32citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

32 citing papers in PubMed.

  1. Article
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  3. Future heatwave conditions inhibit COThe New phytologist · 2026
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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

4 authors.

Aaron M ShewCollege of Agriculture, Arkansas State University, PO Box 1080, Jonesboro, AR, 72467, USA. ashew@astate.edu.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0003-3788-7891
Jesse B TackDepartment of Agricultural Economics, Kansas State University, 342 Waters Hall, 1603 Old Claflin Pl, Manhattan, KS, 66506, USA.
Lawton L NalleyDepartment of Agricultural Economics and Agribusiness, University of Arkansas, 217 Agriculture Building, Fayetteville, AR, 72701, USA.
Petronella ChaminukaAgricultural Research Council, Hatfield, 1134 Park St, Pretoria, 0083, South Africa.

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Understanding extreme weather impacts on staple crops such as wheat is vital for creating adaptation strategies and increasing food security, especially in dryland cropping systems across Southern Africa. This study analyses heat impacts on wheat using daily weather information and a dryland wheat dataset for 71 cultivars across 17 locations in South Africa from 1998 to 2014. We estimate temperature impacts on yields in extensive regression models, finding that extreme heat drives wheat yield losses, with an additional 24 h of exposure to temperatures above 30 °C associated with a 12.5% yield reduction. Results from a uniform warming scenario of +1 °C show an average wheat yield reduction of 8.5%, which increases to 18.4% and 28.5% under +2 and +3 °C scenarios. We also find evidence of differences in heat effects across cultivars, which suggests warming impacts may be reduced through the sharing of gene pools amongst wheat breeding programs.

Indexed as

Adaptation, PhysiologicalCrops, AgriculturalTriticumBreedingClimate ChangeGenotypeGlobal WarmingHot TemperatureSouth Africa

Identifiers

PMID32879311
PMCPMC7468144

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
LicenceCC BY
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Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.