ArticleChronic obstructive pulmonary diseases (Miami, Fla.)2020
A Risk Prediction Model for Mortality Among Smokers in the COPDGene® Study.
Article in Chronic obstructive pulmonary diseases (Miami, Fla.), 2020. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 12 papers, 2 of them syntheses that pooled it.
What it found
Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.
The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.
Who cites it
12 citing papers in PubMed, 2 syntheses or guidelines pooled it.
- Community-based prediction models of cardiovascular events, acute exacerbations and all-cause mortality in individuals with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease: a systematic review and meta-analysis on behalf of the International Cardiovascular and Respiratory Alliance.BMJ open respiratory research · 2026Pooled it
- Pooled it
- CT-derived functional imaging biomarkers combined with FEV1 for predicting 10-year all-cause mortality in COPDGene cohort.npj biomedical innovations · 2025Article
- Development and validation of a mortality risk prediction model for chronic obstructive pulmonary disease: a cross-sectional study using probabilistic graphical modelling.EClinicalMedicine · 2024Article
- Development of airflow limitation, dyspnoea, and both in the general population: the Nagahama study.Scientific reports · 2022Article
- Predicting COPD Progression in Current and Former Smokers Using a Joint Model for Forced Expiratory Volume in 1 Second and Forced Expiratory Volume in 1 Second to Forced Vital Capacity Ratio.Chronic obstructive pulmonary diseases (Miami, Fla.) · 2022Article
- Chronotropic index during 6-minute walk and acute respiratory events in COPDGene.Respiratory medicine · 2022Article
- Alpha-1 Antitrypsin MZ Heterozygosity Is an Endotype of Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease.American journal of respiratory and critical care medicine · 2022Article
- Insights into the Spectrum of Chronic Lower Respiratory Disease: Low Lung Function Is Still Bad.American journal of respiratory and critical care medicine · 2021Article
- Utility of Self-Administered Questionnaires for Identifying Individuals at Risk of COPD in Japan: The OCEAN (Okinawa COPD casE finding AssessmeNt) Study.International journal of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease · 2021Observational
- Editorial: Risk Prediction in Smokers.Chronic obstructive pulmonary diseases (Miami, Fla.) · 2020Article
- Prevalence and Characteristics of Individuals with Preserved Ratio Impaired Spirometry (PRISm) and/or Impaired Lung Function in Japan: The OCEAN Study.International journal of chronic obstructive pulmonary diseaseObservational
Corrections and comments
PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.
Authors and funding
39 authors.
Funding
Abstract
backgroundRisk factor identification is a proven strategy in advancing treatments and preventive therapy for many chronic conditions. Quantifying the impact of those risk factors on health outcomes can consolidate and focus efforts on individuals with specific high-risk profiles. Using multiple risk factors and longitudinal outcomes in 2 independent cohorts, we developed and validated a risk score model to predict mortality in current and former cigarette smokers.
methodsWe obtained extensive data on current and former smokers from the COPD Genetic Epidemiology (COPDGene
resultsOf 9867 COPDGene participants with standard baseline data, 17.6% died over 10 years of follow-up, and 9074 of these participants had the full set of baseline predictors (standard plus 6-minute walk distance and computed tomography variables) available for full model fits. The average age of participants in the cohort was 60 for both men and women, and the average predicted 10-year mortality risk was 18% for women and 25% for men. Model time-integrated area under the receiver operating characteristic curve statistics demonstrated good predictive model accuracy (0.797 average), validated in the external cohort (0.756 average). Risk of mortality was impacted most by 6-minute walk distance, forced expiratory volume in 1 second and age, for both men and women.
conclusionsCurrent and former smokers exhibited a wide range of mortality risk over a 10- year period. Our models can identify higher risk individuals who can be targeted for interventions to reduce risk of mortality, for participants with or without chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) using current Global initiative for obstructive Lung Disease (GOLD) criteria.
Indexed as
Identifiers
What OpenQuestion holds
Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.