ArticleRevista da Sociedade Brasileira de Medicina Tropical2020
Long-term forecasts of the COVID-19 epidemic: a dangerous idea.
Article in Revista da Sociedade Brasileira de Medicina Tropical, 2020. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 4 papers.
What it found
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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
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Who cites it
4 citing papers in PubMed.
- Modeling the impact of child vaccination (5-11 y) on overall COVID-19 related hospitalizations and mortality in a context of omicron variant predominance and different vaccination coverage paces in Brazil.Lancet regional health. Americas · 2023Article
- Short-term forecasting of confirmed daily COVID-19 cases in the Southern African Development Community region.African health sciences · 2022Article
- Unreliable predictions about COVID-19 infections and hospitalizations make people worry: The case of Italy.Journal of medical virology · 2022Article
- Feasibility of very short-term forecast models for COVID-19 hospital-based surveillance.Revista da Sociedade Brasileira de Medicina Tropical · 2021Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
3 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
introductionMathematical models have been used to obtain long-term forecasts of the COVID-19 epidemic.
methodsThe daily COVID-19 case count in two Brazilian states was used to show the potential limitations of long-term forecasting through the application of a mathematical model to the data.
resultsThe predicted number of cases at the end of the epidemic and at the moment that the peak occurs, is highly dependent on the length of the time series used in the predictive model.
conclusionsPredictions obtained during the course of the COVID-19 pandemic need to be viewed with caution.
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Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.