ArticleJournal of public health research2020
Prediction of daily COVID-19 cases in European countries using automatic ARIMA model.
Article in Journal of public health research, 2020. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 6 papers.
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Who cites it
6 citing papers in PubMed.
- Predicting the daily counts of COVID-19 infection using temporal convolutional networks.Journal of global health · 2023Article
- An interpretable hybrid predictive model of COVID-19 cases using autoregressive model and LSTM.Scientific reports · 2023Article
- Comparison of ARIMA, ETS, NNAR, TBATS and hybrid models to forecast the second wave of COVID-19 hospitalizations in Italy.The European journal of health economics : HEPAC : health economics in prevention and care · 2022Article
- Spatio-temporal evolution and trend prediction of the incidence of Class B notifiable infectious diseases in China: a sample of statistical data from 2007 to 2020.BMC public health · 2022Article
- A mathematical-adapted model to analyze the characteristics for the mortality of COVID-19.Scientific reports · 2022Article
- Panel Associations Between Newly Dead, Healed, Recovered, and Confirmed Cases During COVID-19 Pandemic.Journal of epidemiology and global health · 2022Article
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Authors and funding
2 authors.
Funding
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Abstract
The recent pandemic (COVID-19) emerged in Wuhan city of China and after causing a lot of destruction there recently changed its epicenter to Europe. There are countless people affected and reported cases are increasing day by day. Predictive models need to consider previous reported cases and forecast the upcoming number of cases. Automatic ARIMA, one of the predictive models used for forecasting contagions, was used in this study to predict the number of confirmed cases for next 10 days in four top European countries through R package "forecast". The study finds that Auto ARIMA applied on the sample satisfactorily forecasts the confirmed cases of coronavirus for next ten days. The confirmed cases for the four countries show an increasing trend for the next ten days with Spain with a highest number of expected new confirmed cases, followed by Germany and France. Italy is expected to have lowest number of new confirmed cases among the four countries.
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Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.