ArticleCMAJ : Canadian Medical Association journal = journal de l'Association medicale canadienne2020
Clearing the surgical backlog caused by COVID-19 in Ontario: a time series modelling study.
Article in CMAJ : Canadian Medical Association journal = journal de l'Association medicale canadienne, 2020. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. It is linked to trial NCT05962970 (Continuous Adductor Canal Block in Fast Track Total Knee Arthroplasty), which is not on this map. Cited by 107 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Continuous Adductor Canal Block in Fast Track Total Knee Arthroplasty
Who cites it
107 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.
- Fixation of Distal Radius Fractures Under Wide-Awake Local Anesthesia: A Systematic Review.Hand (New York, N.Y.) · 2024Pooled it
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- The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on kidney stone management in a single-payer system.Canadian Urological Association journal = Journal de l'Association des urologues du Canada · 2025Article
- Novel uses of healthcare technology for individuals with mild to moderate hip or knee osteoarthritis: The technology, exercise and activity prescription for enhanced mobility (TEAM) study randomized controlled trial protocol.Osteoarthritis and cartilage open · 2025Article
- COVID-related delays in non-urgent adult surgeries: comparing population-based results from two Canadian provinces.Frontiers in surgery · 2025Article
- Changes in female cancer diagnostic billing rates over the COVID-19 period in the Ontario Health Insurance Plan.Therapeutic advances in medical oncology · 2025Article
- Cohort profile: The SAIL long-term conditions e-cohort (SLTC cohort) investigating area-level changes in healthcare resource use in Wales.International journal of population data science · 2025Article
- Perspectives of healthcare stakeholders in Nigeria on the impact of COVID-19 on health services.Journal of public health in Africa · 2025Article
- Turbulence in the system: Higher rates of left-without-being-seen emergency department visits and associations with increased risks of adverse patient outcomes since 2020.Journal of the American College of Emergency Physicians open · 2024Article
- Patient-Reported Experiences of Musculoskeletal Virtual Care Delivered by Advanced Practice Physiotherapists.Physiotherapy Canada. Physiotherapie Canada · 2024Article
- Impact of the COVID-19 Prioritization Recommendations on Pathological Stages of Urologic Malignancies: A Real-World Analysis at a High-Volume Referral Institution.Journal of clinical medicine · 2024Article
- Consequences of delaying non-urgent surgeries during COVID-19: a population-based retrospective cohort study in Alberta, Canada.BMJ open · 2024Article
- Longer-term impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic on obstructive sleep apnoea (OSA)-related healthcare: a province-based study.BMJ open respiratory research · 2024Article
- Surgical waitlist management: Perspectives from surgeons on surgical prioritization at a paediatric hospital.Paediatrics & child health · 2024Article
- Higher Post-Acute Health Care Costs Following SARS-CoV-2 Infection Among Adults in Ontario, Canada.Journal of multidisciplinary healthcare · 2024Article
- Article
- Evolution of the surgical procedure gap during and after the COVID-19 pandemic in Ontario, Canada: cross-sectional and modelling study.The British journal of surgery · 2023Article
- Preventive care recommendations to promote health equity.CMAJ : Canadian Medical Association journal = journal de l'Association medicale canadienne · 2023Article
- The Lasting Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Surgical Key Indicator Cases for Otolaryngology Residency Education.The Annals of otology, rhinology, and laryngology · 2023Article
47 more citing papers are in PubMed but not listed here.
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11 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
backgroundTo mitigate the effects of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), jurisdictions worldwide ramped down nonemergent surgeries, creating a global surgical backlog. We sought to estimate the size of the nonemergent surgical backlog during COVID-19 in Ontario, Canada, and the time and resources required to clear the backlog.
methodsWe used 6 Ontario or Canadian population administrative sources to obtain data covering part or all of the period between Jan. 1, 2017, and June 13, 2020, on historical volumes and operating room throughput distributions by surgery type and region, and lengths of stay in ward and intensive care unit (ICU) beds. We used time series forecasting, queuing models and probabilistic sensitivity analysis to estimate the size of the backlog and clearance time for a +10% (+1 day per week at 50% capacity) surge scenario.
resultsBetween Mar. 15 and June 13, 2020, the estimated backlog in Ontario was 148 364 surgeries (95% prediction interval 124 508-174 589), an average weekly increase of 11 413 surgeries. Estimated backlog clearance time is 84 weeks (95% confidence interval [CI] 46-145), with an estimated weekly throughput of 717 patients (95% CI 326-1367) requiring 719 operating room hours (95% CI 431-1038), 265 ward beds (95% CI 87-678) and 9 ICU beds (95% CI 4-20) per week.
interpretationThe magnitude of the surgical backlog from COVID-19 raises serious implications for the recovery phase in Ontario. Our framework for modelling surgical backlog recovery can be adapted to other jurisdictions, using local data to assist with planning.
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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.