ArticleInfectious diseases of poverty2020
Analysis and predication of tuberculosis registration rates in Henan Province, China: an exponential smoothing model study.
Article in Infectious diseases of poverty, 2020. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 17 papers.
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17 citing papers in PubMed, 22 citations in OpenAlex.
- Optimizing Tuberculosis Incidence Prediction: A Systematic Review of Hybrid Modeling Approaches and Machine Learning Techniques.Public health challenges · 2026Review
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- Changing epidemiological patterns of tuberculosis in China from 1990 to 2023: trends and future projections of drug-resistant and HIV-associated tuberculosis.Frontiers in public health · 2026Article
- Hand, foot and mouth disease incidence in mainland China: temporal trends and projections to 2030.BMC public health · 2025Article
- Prediction of monthly occurrence number of scrub typhus in Ganzhou City, China, based on SARIMA and BPNN models.Infectious Disease Modelling · 2025Article
- Changing Trends in the Cysticercosis-Related Disease Burden from 1990 to 2021 and its Predicted Level in 2022-2050 Years.Acta parasitologica · 2025Article
- The impact of schistosomiasis on the Global Disease Burden: a systematic analysis based on the 2021 Global Burden of Disease study.Parasite (Paris, France) · 2025Article
- Evaluating the effectiveness of self-attention mechanism in tuberculosis time series forecasting.BMC infectious diseases · 2024Article
- Long- and short-run asymmetric impacts of climate variation on tuberculosis based on a time series study.Scientific reports · 2024Article
- Research of Combined ES-BP Model in Predicting Syphilis Incidence 1982-2020 in Mainland China.Iranian journal of public health · 2023Article
- Spatial epidemiological characteristics and exponential smoothing model application of tuberculosis in Qinghai Plateau, China.Epidemiology and infection · 2022Article
- Article
- Predictive study of tuberculosis incidence by time series method and Elman neural network in Kashgar, China.BMJ open · 2021Article
- Estimating the Effects of the COVID-19 Outbreak on the Reductions in Tuberculosis Cases and the Epidemiological Trends in China: A Causal Impact Analysis.Infection and drug resistance · 2021Article
- Estimating the Long-Term Epidemiological Trends and Seasonality of Hemorrhagic Fever with Renal Syndrome in China.Infection and drug resistance · 2021Article
- Forecasting the Tuberculosis Incidence Using a Novel Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition-Based Data-Driven Hybrid Model in Tibet, China.Infection and drug resistance · 2021Article
- Time Series Analysis and Forecasting of the Hand-Foot-Mouth Disease Morbidity in China Using An Advanced Exponential Smoothing State Space TBATS Model.Infection and drug resistance · 2021Article
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9 authors at 3 institutions in 1 country.
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No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
backgroundThe World Health Organization End TB Strategy meant that compared with 2015 baseline, the reduction in pulmonary tuberculosis (PTB) incidence should be 20 and 50% in 2020 and 2025, respectively. The case number of PTB in China accounted for 9% of the global total in 2018, which ranked the second high in the world. From 2007 to 2019, 854 672 active PTB cases were registered and treated in Henan Province, China. This study was to assess whether the WHO milestones could be achieved in Henan Province.
methodsThe active PTB numbers in Henan Province from 2007 to 2019, registered in Chinese Tuberculosis Information Management System were analyzed to predict the active PTB registration rates in 2020 and 2025, which is conductive to early response measures to ensure the achievement of the WHO milestones. The time series model was created by monthly active PTB registration rates from 2007 to 2016, and the optimal model was verified by data from 2017 to 2019. The Ljung-Box Q statistic was used to evaluate the model. The statistically significant level is α = 0.05. Monthly active PTB registration rates and 95% confidence interval (CI) from 2020 to 2025 were predicted.
resultsHigh active PTB registration rates in March, April, May and June showed the seasonal variations. The exponential smoothing winter's multiplication model was selected as the best-fitting model. The predicted values were approximately consistent with the observed ones from 2017 to 2019. The annual active PTB registration rates were predicted as 49.1 (95% CI: 36.2-62.0) per 100 000 population and 34.4 (95% CI: 18.6-50.2) per 100 000 population in 2020 and 2025, respectively. Compared with the active PTB registration rate in 2015, the reduction will reach 23.7% (95% CI, 3.2-44.1%) and 46.8% (95% CI, 21.4-72.1%) in 2020 and 2025, respectively.
conclusionsThe high active PTB registration rates in spring and early summer indicate that high risk of tuberculosis infection in late autumn and winter in Henan Province. Without regard to the CI, the first milestone of WHO End TB Strategy in 2020 will be achieved. However, the second milestone in 2025 will not be easily achieved unless there are early response measures in Henan Province, China.
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