ArticleChaos, solitons, and fractals2020
Logistic equation and COVID-19.
Article in Chaos, solitons, and fractals, 2020. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 24 papers.
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Who cites it
24 citing papers in PubMed.
- R17 Drives Heparan Sulfate Clearance via Endolysosomal Trafficking.Israel journal of chemistry · 2026Article
- Boxcar Imaging FCS Reveals Membrane Raft Stabilization Kinetics in Antigen-Stimulated Mast Cells.bioRxiv : the preprint server for biology · 2025Article
- Impact of COVID-19 vaccinations in India: a state-wise analysis.BMC public health · 2025Article
- Data-Driven Deep Learning Neural Networks for Predicting the Number of Individuals Infected by COVID-19 Omicron Variant.Epidemiologia (Basel, Switzerland) · 2023Article
- Solving the stochastic dynamics of population growth.Ecology and evolution · 2023Article
- Monkeypox: a model-free analysis.European physical journal plus · 2023Article
- Quantifying Social Interventions for Combating COVID-19 via a Symmetry-Based Model.International journal of environmental research and public health · 2022Article
- Assessing the impact of COVID-19 mass testing in South Tyrol using a semi-parametric growth model.Scientific reports · 2022Article
- A phenomenological model for COVID-19 data taking into account neighboring-provinces effect and random noise.Statistica Neerlandica · 2022Article
- A Skew Logistic Distribution for Modelling COVID-19 Waves and Its Evaluation Using the Empirical Survival Jensen-Shannon Divergence.Entropy (Basel, Switzerland) · 2022Article
- Harnessing Artificial Intelligence to assess the impact of nonpharmaceutical interventions on the second wave of the Coronavirus Disease 2019 pandemic across the world.Scientific reports · 2022Article
- An Easy-to-Use Public Health-Driven Method (the Generalized Logistic Differential Equation Model) Accurately Simulated COVID-19 Epidemic in Wuhan and Correctly Determined the Early Warning Time.Frontiers in public health · 2022Article
- Gompertz model in COVID-19 spreading simulation.Chaos, solitons, and fractals · 2022Article
- A stochastic Bayesian bootstrapping model for COVID-19 data.Stochastic environmental research and risk assessment : research journal · 2022Article
- Fractional Euler numbers and generalized proportional fractional logistic differential equation.Fractional calculus & applied analysis · 2022Article
- Editorial: Epidemiological considerations in COVID-19 forecasting.Frontiers in epidemiology · 2022Article
- Emergence of universality in the transmission dynamics of COVID-19.Scientific reports · 2021Article
- Predictive models for COVID-19 cases, deaths and recoveries in Algeria.Results in physics · 2021Article
- A particle swarm optimization approach for predicting the number of COVID-19 deaths.Scientific reports · 2021Review
- Time-dependent probability distribution for number of infection in a stochastic SIS model: case study COVID-19.Chaos, solitons, and fractals · 2021Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
5 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
The generalized logistic equation is used to interpret the COVID-19 epidemic data in several countries: Austria, Switzerland, the Netherlands, Italy, Turkey and South Korea. The model coefficients are calculated: the growth rate and the expected number of infected people, as well as the exponent indexes in the generalized logistic equation. It is shown that the dependence of the number of the infected people on time is well described on average by the logistic curve (within the framework of a simple or generalized logistic equation) with a determination coefficient exceeding 0.8. At the same time, the dependence of the number of the infected people per day on time has a very uneven character and can be described very roughly by the logistic curve. To describe it, it is necessary to take into account the dependence of the model coefficients on time or on the total number of cases. Variations, for example, of the growth rate can reach 60%. The variability spectra of the coefficients have characteristic peaks at periods of several days, which corresponds to the observed serial intervals. The use of the stochastic logistic equation is proposed to estimate the number of probable peaks in the coronavirus incidence.
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