ArticlePhysica D. Nonlinear phenomena2020
New approximations, and policy implications, from a delayed dynamic model of a fast pandemic.
Article in Physica D. Nonlinear phenomena, 2020. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 20 papers.
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20 citing papers in PubMed.
- Applications of Machine Learning (ML) and Mathematical Modeling (MM) in Healthcare with Special Focus on Cancer Prognosis and Anticancer Therapy: Current Status and Challenges.Pharmaceutics · 2024Review
- Multi-Criteria Performance Analysis Based on Physics of Decision - Application to COVID-19 and Future Pandemics.IEEE transactions on services computing · 2023Article
- Uncertainty quantification in mechanistic epidemic models via cross-entropy approximate Bayesian computation.Nonlinear dynamics · 2023Article
- Comparing the dynamics of COVID-19 infection and mortality in the United States, India, and Brazil.Physica D. Nonlinear phenomena · 2022Article
- Estimating a continuously varying offset between multivariate time series with application to COVID-19 in the United States.The European physical journal. Special topics · 2022Article
- Merits and Limitations of Mathematical Modeling and Computational Simulations in Mitigation of COVID-19 Pandemic: A Comprehensive Review.Archives of computational methods in engineering : state of the art reviews · 2022Review
- Estimation of COVID-19 recovery and decease periods in Canada using delay model.Scientific reports · 2021Article
- Trends in COVID-19 prevalence and mortality: A year in review.Physica D. Nonlinear phenomena · 2021Article
- Nonlinear science against the COVID-19 pandemic.Physica D. Nonlinear phenomena · 2021Article
- Emergence of universality in the transmission dynamics of COVID-19.Scientific reports · 2021Article
- Epidemic models with discrete state structures.Physica D. Nonlinear phenomena · 2021Article
- Distribution of incubation periods of COVID-19 in the Canadian context.Scientific reports · 2021Article
- Dynamics, behaviours, and anomaly persistence in cryptocurrencies and equities surrounding COVID-19.Physica A · 2021Article
- Data suggest COVID-19 affected numbers greatly exceeded detected numbers, in four European countries, as per a delayed SEIQR model.Scientific reports · 2021Article
- COVID-19 pandemic models revisited with a new proposal: Plenty of epidemiological models outcast the simple population dynamics solution.Chaos, solitons, and fractals · 2021Article
- Association between COVID-19 cases and international equity indices.Physica D. Nonlinear phenomena · 2021Article
- An Epidemiological Model Considering Isolation to Predict COVID-19 Trends in Tokyo, Japan: Numerical Analysis.JMIR public health and surveillance · 2020Article
- A review of mathematical modeling, artificial intelligence and datasets used in the study, prediction and management of COVID-19.Applied intelligence (Dordrecht, Netherlands) · 2020Article
- Complete dimensional collapse in the continuum limit of a delayed SEIQR network model with separable distributed infectivity.Nonlinear dynamics · 2020Article
- Epidemiologically and Socio-economically Optimal Policies via Bayesian Optimization.Transactions of the Indian National Academy of Engineering : an international journal of engineering and technology · 2020Article
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2 authors.
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Abstract
We study an SEIQR (Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Quarantined-Recovered) model due to Young et al. (2019) for an infectious disease, with time delays for latency and an asymptomatic phase. For fast pandemics where nobody has prior immunity and everyone has immunity after recovery, the SEIQR model decouples into two nonlinear delay differential equations (DDEs) with five parameters. One parameter is set to unity by scaling time. The simple subcase of perfect quarantining and zero self-recovery before quarantine, with two free parameters, is examined first. The method of multiple scales yields a hyperbolic tangent solution; and a long-wave (short delay) approximation yields a first order ordinary differential equation (ODE). With imperfect quarantining and nonzero self-recovery, the long-wave approximation is a second order ODE. These three approximations each capture the full outbreak, from infinitesimal initiation to final saturation. Low-dimensional dynamics in the DDEs is demonstrated using a six state non-delayed reduced order model obtained by Galerkin projection. Numerical solutions from the reduced order model match the DDE over a range of parameter choices and initial conditions. Finally, stability analysis and numerics show how a well executed temporary phase of social distancing can reduce the total number of people affected. The reduction can be by as much as half for a weak pandemic, and is smaller but still substantial for stronger pandemics. An explicit formula for the greatest possible reduction is given.
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