Evidence map›Paper›PMID 32860820›Full record

ArticlePreventive medicine2020

Modeling smoking-attributable mortality among adults with major depression in the United States.

Jamie Tam, Gemma M J Taylor, Kara Zivin, Kenneth E Warner, Rafael Meza

Open access · greenAbstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Preventive medicine, 2020. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 14 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
14citing papers in PubMed
1.6field-weighted citation impact, top 17% of its field
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

14 citing papers in PubMed, 22 citations in OpenAlex.

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  3. Modeling the Impact of Smoking on Mortality in Argentina From 2000 to 2100. A Maximum Potential Reduction in Premature Mortality Analysis.Nicotine & tobacco research : official journal of the Society for Research on Nicotine and Tobacco · 2026
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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

5 authors at 3 institutions in 2 countries.

Jamie TamDepartment of Health Policy and Management, Yale School of Public Health, New Haven, CT, United States. Electronic address: jamie.tam@yale.edu.
Gemma M J TaylorAddiction and Mental Health Group (AIM), Department of Psychology, University of Bath, Somerset, Claverton Down Bath BA2 7AY, United Kingdom. Electronic address: gmjm20@bath.ac.uk.
Kara ZivinDepartment of Health Management and Policy, University of Michigan School of Public Health, 1415 Washington Heights, Ann Arbor, MI 48109, United States; Department of Psychiatry, University of Michigan Medical School, 1500 E Medical Center Dr, Ann Arbor, MI 48109, United States; Center for Clinical Management Research, VA Ann Arbor Healthcare System, 2215 Fuller Rd, Ann Arbor, MI 48105, United States. Electronic address: kzivin@umich.edu.
Kenneth E WarnerDepartment of Health Management and Policy, University of Michigan School of Public Health, 1415 Washington Heights, Ann Arbor, MI 48109, United States. Electronic address: kwarner@umich.edu.
Rafael MezaDepartment of Epidemiology, University of Michigan School of Public Health, 1415 Washington Heights, Ann Arbor, MI 48109, United States; Cancer Epidemiology and Prevention Program, University of Michigan Rogel Cancer Center, 1500 E Medical Center Dr, Ann Arbor, MI 48109, United States. Electronic address: rmeza@umich.edu.
University of Michigan–Ann Arbor · USUniversity of Bath · GBYale New Haven Health System · US

Funding

Yale Clinical and Translational Science Award (U Component)UL1TR001863 · NCATS · YALE UNIVERSITY · PI John H. Krystal, LUCILA OHNO-MACHADO · 2016 to 2026
$102.9M
Research Project 3: Modeling the Impact of Tobacco Control Policies on Polytobacco Use and Associated Health DisparitiesU54CA229974 · NCI · UNIVERSITY OF MICHIGAN AT ANN ARBOR · PI Alex Craig Liber · 2018 to 2026
$39.2M
Comparative Modeling of Lung Cancer Prevention and Control PoliciesU01CA199284 · NCI · UNIVERSITY OF MICHIGAN AT ANN ARBOR · PI DE KONING, HARRY J, HOLFORD, THEODORE R · 2015 to 2019
$8.4M
Modeling Smoking and Depression Co-Morbidity and Treatment Interventions: a System Dynamics ApproachF31DA041083 · NIDA · UNIVERSITY OF MICHIGAN AT ANN ARBOR · PI TAM, JAMIE PEARL · 2016 to 2017
$73k
Cancer Research UK C56067/A21330NCATS NIH HHS UL1 TR001863NCI NIH HHS U01 CA199284NCI NIH HHS U54 CA229974NIDA NIH HHS F31 DA041083
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Tobacco-related health disparities disproportionately affect smokers with major depression (MD). Although tobacco simulation models have been applied to general populations, to date they have not considered populations with a comorbid mental health condition. We developed and calibrated a simulation model of smoking and MD comorbidity for the US adult population using the 2005-2018 National Surveys on Drug Use and Health. We use this model to evaluate trends in smoking prevalence, smoking-attributable mortality and life-years lost among adults with MD, and changes in smoking prevalence by mental health status from 2018 to 2060. The model integrates known interaction effects between smoking initiation and cessation, and MD onset and recurrence. We show that from 2018 to 2060, smoking prevalence will continue declining among those with current MD. In the absence of intervention, people with MD will be increasingly disproportionately affected by smoking compared to the general population; our model shows that the smoking prevalence ratio between those with current MD and those without a history of MD increases from 1.54 to 2.42 for men and from 1.81 to 2.73 for women during this time period. From 2018 to 2060, approximately 484,000 smoking-attributable deaths will occur among adults with current MD, leading to 11.3 million life-years lost. Ambitious tobacco control efforts could alter this trajectory. With aggressive public health efforts, up to 264,000 of those premature deaths could be avoided, translating into 7.5 million life years gained. This model can compare the relative health gains across different intervention strategies for smokers with MD.

Indexed as

Major Depressive DisorderAdultDepressionFemaleHumansMalePrevalenceSmokingSmoking PreventionTobacco SmokingUnited StatesDepressionMajor depressionSimulation modelSmokingSystems dynamicsTobacco

Identifiers

PMID32860820
PMCPMC7680404
OpenAlexW3080614367

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
LicenceTDM
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.