ArticleNature communications2020
Incorporating hydrology into climate suitability models changes projections of malaria transmission in Africa.
Article in Nature communications, 2020. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 19 papers.
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Who cites it
19 citing papers in PubMed, 59 citations in OpenAlex.
- Novel environmental risk index reveals uneven impact of climate change on fascioliasis risk across Africa and Europe.PLoS neglected tropical diseases · 2026Article
- Contemporary Anopheles vector species distribution in Scotland and its association with historical hotspots of malaria transmission.Malaria journal · 2026Article
- Hydrometeorological drivers of mosquito (Diptera: Culicidae) abundance in an urbanized region of central Oklahoma.Journal of medical entomology · 2026Article
- Geospatial mapping of malaria risk in flood-prone zones of Sub-Saharan Africa.Scientific reports · 2026Article
- Seasonal variation in aquatic habitat availability and use by the malaria vector, Anopheles funestus.Malaria journal · 2026Article
- Predicting environmental suitability and future spread range ofInternational journal of applied earth observation and geoinformation : ITC journal · 2026Article
- Mapping Malaria Susceptibility in the Oti Region of Ghana Using Remote Sensing and GIS: A Retrospective Observational Study.Health science reports · 2025Article
- Climate Change Favors African Malaria Vector Mosquitoes.Global change biology · 2025Article
- Contrasting vector competence of three main East African Anopheles malaria vector mosquitoes for Plasmodium falciparum.Scientific reports · 2025Article
- Modelling the spatial risk of malaria through probability distribution ofEmerging microbes & infections · 2024Article
- Effects of climate change and human activities on vector-borne diseases.Nature reviews. Microbiology · 2024Review
- Geospatial modelling of dry season habitats of the malaria vector, Anopheles funestus, in south-eastern Tanzania.Parasites & vectors · 2024Article
- Investigating the Impact of Irrigation on Malaria Vector Larval Habitats and Transmission Using a Hydrology-Based Model.GeoHealth · 2023Article
- Water Resources in Africa under Global Change: Monitoring Surface Waters from Space.Surveys in geophysics · 2023Review
- Temporally consistent predominance and distribution of secondary malaria vectors in the Anopheles community of the upper Zambezi floodplain.Scientific reports · 2022Article
- Using machine learning to understand microgeographic determinants of the Zika vector, Aedes aegypti.PloS one · 2022Article
- Asymptomatic malaria and nurturing factors in lowlands of Ethiopia: A community based cross-sectional study.PLOS global public health · 2022Article
- Satellite Observations and Malaria: New Opportunities for Research and Applications.Trends in parasitology · 2021Review
- Climate-related stressors, community healthcare systems, and adaptation strategies: A scoping review.The journal of climate change and healthReview
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
11 authors at 5 institutions in 3 countries.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
Continental-scale models of malaria climate suitability typically couple well-established temperature-response models with basic estimates of vector habitat availability using rainfall as a proxy. Here we show that across continental Africa, the estimated geographic range of climatic suitability for malaria transmission is more sensitive to the precipitation threshold than the thermal response curve applied. To address this problem we use downscaled daily climate predictions from seven GCMs to run a continental-scale hydrological model for a process-based representation of mosquito breeding habitat availability. A more complex pattern of malaria suitability emerges as water is routed through drainage networks and river corridors serve as year-round transmission foci. The estimated hydro-climatically suitable area for stable malaria transmission is smaller than previous models suggest and shows only a very small increase in state-of-the-art future climate scenarios. However, bigger geographical shifts are observed than with most rainfall threshold models and the pattern of that shift is very different when using a hydrological model to estimate surface water availability for vector breeding.
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