ArticleVirology journal2020
Disease burden of chronic hepatitis B and complications in China from 2006 to 2050: an individual-based modeling study.
Article in Virology journal, 2020. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 13 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
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Who cites it
13 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.
- Trends of Phase I Clinical Trials of New Drugs in Mainland China Over the Past 10 Years (2011-2020).Frontiers in medicine · 2021Pooled it
- Clinical burden, disease progression, and management strategies in chronic hepatitis B: implications for public health practice.Frontiers in public health · 2026Article
- Chronic hepatitis B: Is it time for expanded antiviral treatment?World journal of virology · 2025Review
- Construction of a Bayesian network-based risk prediction model for hepatocellular carcinoma in cirrhotic patients.Frontiers in oncology · 2025Article
- Assessing the impact of comorbid type 2 diabetes mellitus on the disease burden of chronic hepatitis B virus infection and its complications in China from 2006 to 2030: a modeling study.Global health research and policy · 2024Article
- Clinical study of standard residual liver volume and transient elastography in predicting poor prognosis of patients after hemihepatectomy.World journal of clinical oncology · 2023Article
- Shared-care models are highly effective and cost-effective for managing chronic hepatitis B in China: reinterpreting the primary care and specialty divide.The Lancet regional health. Western Pacific · 2023Article
- Editorial: Advances in host-pathogen interactions for diseases in animals and birds.Frontiers in veterinary science · 2023Article
- Analysis of deaths following yeast-derived hepatitis B vaccination of infants, China, January 2013 to December 2020.Frontiers in public health · 2023Article
- Dynamics of Hepatitis B infection prevention practices among pregnant women attending antenatal care at Lubaga Hospital Kampala, Uganda using the constructs of information-motivation-behavioural skills model.BMC public health · 2022Article
- Conventional and genetic risk factors for chronic Hepatitis B virus infection in a community-based study of 0.5 million Chinese adults.Scientific reports · 2022Article
- In-patient Expenditure Between 2012 and 2020 Concerning Patients With Liver Cirrhosis in Chongqing: A Hospital-Based Multicenter Retrospective Study.Frontiers in public health · 2022Article
- Experimental and molecular predictions of the adjuvanticity of snail mucin on hepatitis B vaccine in albino mice.PloS one · 2021Article
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Authors and funding
6 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
backgroundChronic hepatitis B has become a major public health problem in China. An accurate depiction of the disease burden has not yet been thoroughly conducted. We aimed to project the disease burden of chronic hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection and related complications by modeling various scenarios.
methodAn individual-based Markov model was used to predict disease burden from 2006 through 2050. We simulated 5 scenarios with different annual incidences, diagnoses and nucleotide analog (NA) treatment rates as well as treatment eligibility, which included a natural history without diagnosis or NA therapy, a base case, a World Health Organization (WHO)-proposed target case and two ideal cases.
resultThe natural history scenario is projected to have the fewest HBsAg losses (27.59 million) and highest number of HBV-related deaths (27.19 million). With improved diagnosis and treatment rates of NA therapy, ideal cases have fewer HBV-related deaths (14.46-14.77 million) than do WHO-proposed cases (15.13 million) and base cases (16.89 million), but the proportion of HBsAg loss is similar among them. With a reduction in new infections, the prevalence of chronic HBV in 2050 is expected to be a minimum of 27.03-27.49 million under WHO and ideal cases.
conclusionIdeal scenarios 1 and 2 contribute to the lowest disease burden of HBV and its complications in the future, in which new infection control is more effective than increasing diagnosis, treatment rate and treatment eligibility. However, considering the large existing chronic HBV infected population and the low HBsAg loss rate of NA therapy, it is still difficult to avert the increasing trend of cumulative cirrhosis, DC, HCC, LT, and HBV-related death in all scenarios. If new high-potency drugs are not developed, the disease burden of chronic HBV will remain high in the future.
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