Evidence map›Paper›PMID 32858068›Full record

ArticleThe Journal of infection2020

Disparities in the excess risk of mortality in the first wave of COVID-19: Cross sectional study of the English sentinel network.

Simon de Lusignan, Mark Joy, Jason Oke, Dylan McGagh, Brian Nicholson, James Sheppard, Oluwafunmi Akinyemi, Gayatri Amirthalingam, Kevin Brown, Rachel Byford and 15 more

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in The Journal of infection, 2020. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 24 papers, 2 of them syntheses that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
24citing papers in PubMed, 2 pooled it
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

24 citing papers in PubMed, 2 syntheses or guidelines pooled it.

  1. Pooled it
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  16. The Impact of COVID-19 on Smoking Behaviours and Support for Smoke-Free Zones in Saudi Arabia.International journal of environmental research and public health · 2021
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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

25 authors.

Simon de LusignanNuffield Department of Primary Care Health Sciences, University of Oxford, Radcliffe Observatory Quarter, Woodstock Road, Oxford OX2 6GG, UK. Electronic address: simon.delusignan@phc.ox.ac.uk.
Mark JoyNuffield Department of Primary Care Health Sciences, University of Oxford, Radcliffe Observatory Quarter, Woodstock Road, Oxford OX2 6GG, UK. Electronic address: Mark.joy@phc.ox.ac.uk.
Jason OkeNuffield Department of Primary Care Health Sciences, University of Oxford, Radcliffe Observatory Quarter, Woodstock Road, Oxford OX2 6GG, UK. Electronic address: jason.oke@phc.ox.ac.uk.
Dylan McGaghNuffield Department of Primary Care Health Sciences, University of Oxford, Radcliffe Observatory Quarter, Woodstock Road, Oxford OX2 6GG, UK. Electronic address: dylan.mcgagh@magd.ox.ac.uk.
Brian NicholsonNuffield Department of Primary Care Health Sciences, University of Oxford, Radcliffe Observatory Quarter, Woodstock Road, Oxford OX2 6GG, UK. Electronic address: brian.nicholson@phc.ox.ac.uk.
James SheppardNuffield Department of Primary Care Health Sciences, University of Oxford, Radcliffe Observatory Quarter, Woodstock Road, Oxford OX2 6GG, UK. Electronic address: James.sheppard@phc.ox.ac.uk.
Oluwafunmi AkinyemiNuffield Department of Primary Care Health Sciences, University of Oxford, Radcliffe Observatory Quarter, Woodstock Road, Oxford OX2 6GG, UK. Electronic address: Oluwafunmi.akinyemi@phc.ox.ac.uk.
Gayatri AmirthalingamPublic Health England, London NW9 5EQ, UK. Electronic address: Gayatri.Amirthalingam@phe.gov.uk.
Kevin BrownPublic Health England, London NW9 5EQ, UK. Electronic address: Kevin.Brown@phe.gov.uk.
Rachel ByfordNuffield Department of Primary Care Health Sciences, University of Oxford, Radcliffe Observatory Quarter, Woodstock Road, Oxford OX2 6GG, UK. Electronic address: rachel.byford@phc.ox.ac.uk.
Gavin DabreraPublic Health England, London NW9 5EQ, UK. Electronic address: Gavin.Dabrera@phe.gov.uk.
Else KrajenbrinkRoyal College of General Practitioners, Euston Square, London NW1 2FB, UK. Electronic address: else.krajenbrink@rcgp.org.uk.
Harshana LiyanageNuffield Department of Primary Care Health Sciences, University of Oxford, Radcliffe Observatory Quarter, Woodstock Road, Oxford OX2 6GG, UK. Electronic address: Harshana.liyanage@phc.ox.ac.uk.
Jamie LopezBernalPublic Health England, London NW9 5EQ, UK. Electronic address: Jamie.LopezBernal2@phe.gov.uk.
Cecilia OkusiNuffield Department of Primary Care Health Sciences, University of Oxford, Radcliffe Observatory Quarter, Woodstock Road, Oxford OX2 6GG, UK. Electronic address: cecilia.okusi@phc.ox.ac.uk.
Mary RamsayPublic Health England, London NW9 5EQ, UK. Electronic address: Mary.Ramsay@phe.gov.uk.
Julian SherlockNuffield Department of Primary Care Health Sciences, University of Oxford, Radcliffe Observatory Quarter, Woodstock Road, Oxford OX2 6GG, UK. Electronic address: julian.sherlock@phc.ox.ac.uk.
Mary SinnathambyPublic Health England, London NW9 5EQ, UK. Electronic address: Mary.Sinnathamby@phe.gov.uk.
Ruby S M TsangNuffield Department of Primary Care Health Sciences, University of Oxford, Radcliffe Observatory Quarter, Woodstock Road, Oxford OX2 6GG, UK. Electronic address: ruby.tsang@phc.ox.ac.uk.
Victoria Tzortziou BrownRoyal College of General Practitioners, Euston Square, London NW1 2FB, UK. Electronic address: victoria.tzortziou-brown@rcgp.org.uk.
John WilliamsNuffield Department of Primary Care Health Sciences, University of Oxford, Radcliffe Observatory Quarter, Woodstock Road, Oxford OX2 6GG, UK. Electronic address: John.williams@phc.ox.ac.uk.
Maria ZambonPublic Health England, London NW9 5EQ, UK. Electronic address: Maria.Zambon@phe.gov.uk.
Filipa FerreiraNuffield Department of Primary Care Health Sciences, University of Oxford, Radcliffe Observatory Quarter, Woodstock Road, Oxford OX2 6GG, UK. Electronic address: filipa.ferreira@phc.ox.ac.uk.
Gary HowsamRoyal College of General Practitioners, Euston Square, London NW1 2FB, UK. Electronic address: Gary.Howsam@rcgp.org.uk.
F D Richard HobbsNuffield Department of Primary Care Health Sciences, University of Oxford, Radcliffe Observatory Quarter, Woodstock Road, Oxford OX2 6GG, UK. Electronic address: Richard.Hobbs@phc.ox.ac.uk.

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

objectivesFew studies report contributors to the excess mortality in England during the first wave of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) infection. We report the absolute excess risk (AER) of mortality and excess mortality rate (EMR) from a nationally representative COVID-19 sentinel surveillance network including known COVID-19 risk factors in people aged 45 years and above.

methodsPseudonymised, coded clinical data were uploaded from contributing primary care providers (N = 1,970,314, ≥45years). We calculated the AER in mortality by comparing mortality for weeks 2 to 20 this year with mortality data from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) from 2018 for the same weeks. We conducted univariate and multivariate analysis including preselected variables. We report AER and EMR, with 95% confidence intervals (95% CI).

resultsThe AER of mortality was 197.8/10,000 person years (95%CI:194.30-201.40). The EMR for male gender, compared with female, was 1.4 (95%CI:1.35-1.44, p<0.00); for our oldest age band (≥75 years) 10.09 (95%CI:9.46-10.75, p<0.00) compared to 45-64 year olds; Black ethnicity's EMR was 1.17 (95%CI: 1.03-1.33, p<0.02), reference white; and for dwellings with ≥9 occupants 8.01 (95%CI: 9.46-10.75, p<0.00). Presence of all included comorbidities significantly increased EMR. Ranked from lowest to highest these were: hypertension, chronic kidney disease, chronic respiratory and heart disease, and cancer or immunocompromised.

conclusionsThe absolute excess mortality was approximately 2 deaths per 100 person years in the first wave of COVID-19. More personalised shielding advice for any second wave should include ethnicity, comorbidity and household size as predictors of risk.

Indexed as

BetacoronavirusAgedAge FactorsBlack PeopleComorbidityCoronavirus InfectionsCOVID-19Cross-Sectional StudiesEnglandFamily CharacteristicsFemaleHumansMaleMiddle AgedPandemicsPneumonia, ViralGeneral PracticeMedical record systems, computerizedMortalitySentinel Surveillance

Identifiers

PMID32858068
PMCPMC7446615

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.