Evidence map›Paper›PMID 32855349›Full record

ArticlePediatrics2020

Machine Learning To Predict Serious Bacterial Infections in Young Febrile Infants.

Sriram Ramgopal, Christopher M Horvat, Naveena Yanamala, Elizabeth R Alpern

Abstract readMulticenter Study
In one paragraph

Article in Pediatrics, 2020. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 34 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
34citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

34 citing papers in PubMed.

  1. Article
  2. Article
  3. Article
  4. Review
  5. Article
  6. Article
  7. Review
  8. Observational
  9. Article
  10. Article
  11. Article
  12. Article
  13. Article
  14. Review
  15. Article
  16. Article
  17. Article
  18. Article
  19. Observational
  20. Article
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

4 authors.

Sriram RamgopalDivision of Emergency Medicine, Department of Pediatrics, Ann & Robert H. Lurie Children's Hospital of Chicago and Feinberg School of Medicine, Northwestern University, Chicago, Illinois; sramgopal@luriechildrens.org.
Christopher M HorvatDivision of Pediatric Critical Care Medicine, Department of Critical Care Medicine, University of Pittsburgh School of Medicine, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania.
Naveena YanamalaInstitute for Software Research, Carnegie Mellon University, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania.
Elizabeth R AlpernDivision of Emergency Medicine, Department of Pediatrics, Ann & Robert H. Lurie Children's Hospital of Chicago and Feinberg School of Medicine, Northwestern University, Chicago, Illinois.

Funding

A Learning Health System Approach to Precision Sedation and Analgesia in Critically-Ill ChildrenK23HD099331 · NICHD · UNIVERSITY OF PITTSBURGH AT PITTSBURGH · PI HORVAT, CHRISTOPHER MICHAEL · 2020 to 2024
$810k
NICHD NIH HHS K23 HD099331
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

backgroundRecent decision rules for the management of febrile infants support the identification of infants at higher risk of serious bacterial infections (SBIs) without the performance of routine lumbar puncture. We derive and validate a model to identify febrile infants ≤60 days of age at low risk for SBIs using supervised machine learning approaches.

methodsWe conducted a secondary analysis of a multicenter prospective study performed between December 2008 and May 2013 of febrile infants. Our outcome was SBI, (culture-positive urinary tract infection, bacteremia, and/or bacterial meningitis). We developed and validated 4 supervised learning models: logistic regression, random forest, support vector machine, and a single-hidden layer neural network.

resultsA total of 1470 patients were included (1014 >28 days old). One hundred thirty-eight (9.3%) had SBIs (122 urinary tract infections, 20 bacteremia, and 8 meningitis; 11 with concurrent SBIs). Using 4 features (urinalysis, white blood cell count, absolute neutrophil count, and procalcitonin), we demonstrated with the random forest model the highest specificity (74.9, 95% confidence interval: 71.5%-78.2%) with a sensitivity of 98.6% (95% confidence interval: 92.2%-100.0%) in the validation cohort. One patient with bacteremia was misclassified. Among 1240 patients who received a lumbar puncture, this model could have prevented 849 (68.5%) such procedures.

conclusionsWe derived and internally validated a supervised learning model for the risk-stratification of febrile infants. Although computationally complex, lacking parameter cutoffs, and in need of external validation, this strategy may allow for reductions in unnecessary procedures, hospitalizations, and antibiotics while maintaining excellent sensitivity.

Indexed as

Machine LearningBacterial InfectionsFemaleFeverHumansInfantInfant, NewbornMalePredictive Value of TestsProspective Studies

Identifiers

PMID32855349
PMCPMC7461239

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.