Evidence map›Paper›PMID 32855344›Full record

ArticleThorax2020

Genetically raised serum bilirubin levels and lung cancer: a cohort study and Mendelian randomisation using UK Biobank.

Laura Jane Horsfall, Stephen Burgess, Ian Hall, Irwin Nazareth

Open access · hybridAbstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Thorax, 2020. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 31 papers, 2 of them syntheses that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
31citing papers in PubMed, 2 pooled it
11.4field-weighted citation impact, top 1% of its field
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

31 citing papers in PubMed, 2 syntheses or guidelines pooled it, 52 citations in OpenAlex.

  1. Pooled it
  2. Pooled it
  3. Serum Bilirubin as a Prognostic Factor in Lung Cancer.Diagnostics (Basel, Switzerland) · 2026
    Article
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  8. Bilirubin metabolism in relation to cancer.Frontiers in oncology · 2025
    Review
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  13. Heritable Traits and Lung Cancer Risk: A Two-Sample Mendelian Randomization Study.Cancer epidemiology, biomarkers & prevention : a publication of the American Association for Cancer Research, cosponsored by the American Society of Preventive Oncology · 2023
    Article
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  20. Observational
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

4 authors at 4 institutions in 1 country.

Laura Jane HorsfallDepartment of Primary Care & Population Health, UCL, London, UK laura.horsfall@ucl.ac.uk.ORCID 0000-0002-0868-5660
Stephen BurgessMRC Biostatistics Unit, University of Cambridge Institute of Public Health, Cambridge, Cambridgeshire, UK.
Ian HallDivision of Respiratory Medicine, University of Nottingham, Nottingham, Nottinghamshire, UK.ORCID 0000-0001-9933-3216
Irwin NazarethDepartment of Primary Care & Population Health, UCL, London, UK.
Department of Health and Social Care · GBUniversity College London · GBUniversity of Cambridge · GBUniversity of Nottingham · GB

Funding

Medical Research Council G1000861Medical Research Council MC_PC_12010Medical Research Council MC_UU_00002/7Wellcome Trust 204623/Z/16/Z
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

backgroundModerately raised serum bilirubin levels are associated with lower rates of lung cancer, particularly among smokers. It is not known whether these relationships reflect antioxidant properties or residual confounding.

objectiveThis study aimed to investigate potential causal relationships between serum total bilirubin and lung cancer incidence using one-sample Mendelian randomisation (MR) and UK Biobank.

methodsWe instrumented serum total bilirubin level using two variants (rs887829 and rs4149056) that together explain ~40% of population-level variability and are linked to mild hereditary hyperbilirubinaemia. Lung cancer events occurring after recruitment were identified from national cancer registries. Observational and genetically instrumented incidence rate ratios (IRRs) and rate differences per 10 000 person-years (PYs) by smoking status were estimated.

resultsWe included 377 294 participants (median bilirubin 8.1 μmol/L (IQR 6.4-10.4)) and 2002 lung cancer events in the MR analysis. Each 5 μmol/L increase in observed bilirubin levels was associated with 1.2/10 000 PY decrease (95% CI 0.7 to 1.8) in lung cancer incidence. The corresponding MR estimate was a decrease of 0.8/10 000 PY (95% CI 0.1 to 1.4). The strongest associations were in current smokers where a 5 μmol/L increase in observed bilirubin levels was associated with a decrease in lung cancer incidence of 10.2/10 000 PY (95% CI 5.5 to 15.0) and an MR estimate of 6.4/10 000 PY (95% CI 1.4 to 11.5). For heavy smokers (≥20/day), the MR estimate was an incidence decrease of 23.1/10 000 PY (95% CI 7.3 to 38.9). There was no association in never smokers and no mediation by respiratory function.

conclusionGenetically raised serum bilirubin, common across human populations, may protect people exposed to high levels of smoke oxidants against lung cancers.

Indexed as

Mendelian Randomization AnalysisAdultAgedBilirubinBiological Specimen BanksCausalityFemaleHumansIncidenceLung NeoplasmsMaleMiddle AgedRegistriesSmokingUnited KingdomBilirubinlung canceroxidative stresssmoking cessationtobacco and the lung

Identifiers

PMID32855344
PMCPMC7569373
OpenAlexW3080195900

What OpenQuestion holds

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LicenceCC BY
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Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.