ArticleGenetics2020
Adapt or Perish: Evolutionary Rescue in a Gradually Deteriorating Environment.
Article in Genetics, 2020. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 12 papers.
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Who cites it
12 citing papers in PubMed.
- Linking spatial drug heterogeneity to microbial growth dynamics in theory and experiment.PLoS computational biology · 2026Article
- The role of environmental stress in promoting mutators through evolutionary rescue: quantitative predictions.Genetics · 2025Article
- The Spatial Spread and the Persistence of Gene Drives Are Affected by Demographic Feedbacks, Density Dependence and Allee Effects.Molecular ecology · 2025Article
- Deciphering and steering population-level response under spatial drug heterogeneity on microhabitat structures.bioRxiv : the preprint server for biology · 2025Article
- Spatial structure facilitates evolutionary rescue by drug resistance.PLoS computational biology · 2025Article
- Impacts of limits to adaptation on population and community persistence in a changing environment.Philosophical transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological sciences · 2025Review
- Mutant fate in spatially structured populations on graphs: Connecting models to experiments.PLoS computational biology · 2024Article
- Evolutionary rescue on genotypic fitness landscapes.Journal of the Royal Society, Interface · 2023Article
- Frequent asymmetric migrations suppress natural selection in spatially structured populations.PNAS nexus · 2023Article
- Evolutionary rescue in a fluctuating environment: periodic versus quasi-periodic environmental changes.Proceedings. Biological sciences · 2023Article
- Surviving environmental change: when increasing population size can increase extinction risk.Proceedings. Biological sciences · 2022Article
- Predicting population genetic change in an autocorrelated random environment: Insights from a large automated experiment.PLoS genetics · 2021Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
2 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
We investigate the evolutionary rescue of a microbial population in a gradually deteriorating environment, through a combination of analytical calculations and stochastic simulations. We consider a population destined for extinction in the absence of mutants, which can survive only if mutants sufficiently adapted to the new environment arise and fix. We show that mutants that appear later during the environment deterioration have a higher probability to fix. The rescue probability of the population increases with a sigmoidal shape when the product of the carrying capacity and of the mutation probability increases. Furthermore, we find that rescue becomes more likely for smaller population sizes and/or mutation probabilities if the environment degradation is slower, which illustrates the key impact of the rapidity of environment degradation on the fate of a population. We also show that our main conclusions are robust across various types of adaptive mutants, including specialist and generalist ones, as well as mutants modeling antimicrobial resistance evolution. We further express the average time of appearance of the mutants that do rescue the population and the average extinction time of those that do not. Our methods can be applied to other situations with continuously variable fitnesses and population sizes, and our analytical predictions are valid in the weak-to-moderate mutation regime.
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Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.