ArticleRisk management and healthcare policy2020
Probable Longer Incubation Period for Elderly COVID-19 Cases: Analysis of 180 Contact Tracing Data in Hubei Province, China.
Article in Risk management and healthcare policy, 2020. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 13 papers, 3 of them syntheses that pooled it.
What it found
Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.
The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.
Who cites it
13 citing papers in PubMed, 3 syntheses or guidelines pooled it, 49 citations in OpenAlex.
- Assessing changes in incubation period, serial interval, and generation time of SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern: a systematic review and meta-analysis.BMC medicine · 2023Pooled it
- Incubation Period of COVID-19 Caused by Unique SARS-CoV-2 Strains: A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis.JAMA network open · 2022Pooled it
- The incubation period of COVID-19: a global meta-analysis of 53 studies and a Chinese observation study of 11 545 patients.Infectious diseases of poverty · 2021Pooled it
- Performance of and Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 Diagnostics Based on Symptom Onset and Close Contact Exposure: An Analysis From the Test Us at Home Prospective Cohort Study.Open forum infectious diseases · 2024Article
- Latent and incubation periods of Delta, BA.1, and BA.2 variant cases and associated factors: a cross-sectional study in China.BMC infectious diseases · 2024Article
- Evaluation of the EsteR Toolkit for COVID-19 Decision Support: Sensitivity Analysis and Usability Study.JMIR formative research · 2023Article
- Incubation period of wild type of SARS-CoV-2 infections by age, gender, and epidemic periods.Frontiers in public health · 2022Article
- Modeling the effect of age on quantiles of the incubation period distribution of COVID-19.BMC public health · 2021Article
- Article
- In pursuit of the right tail for the COVID-19 incubation period.Public health · 2021Review
- Estimation of the serial interval and proportion of pre-symptomatic transmission events of COVID- 19 in Ireland using contact tracing data.BMC public health · 2021Article
- A Review of the Current Status of Clinical Management of COVID-19 in the Elderly.Medical science monitor : international medical journal of experimental and clinical research · 2021Review
- Analysis of the early COVID-19 epidemic curve in Germany by regression models with change points.Epidemiology and infection · 2021Article
Corrections and comments
PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.
Authors and funding
3 authors at 2 institutions in 1 country.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
backgroundFactors associated with the incubation period of COVID-19 are not fully known. The aim of this study was to estimate the incubation period of COVID-19 using epidemiological contact tracing data, and to explore whether there were different incubation periods among different age gr1oups.
methodsWe collected contact tracing data in a municipality in Hubei province during the full outbreak period of COVID-19. The exposure periods were inferred from the history of travel in Wuhan and/or history of exposure to confirmed cases. The incubation periods were estimated using parametric accelerated failure time models accounting for interval censoring of exposures.
resultsThe incubation period of COVID-19 follows a Weibull distribution and has a median of 5.8 days with a bootstrap 95% CI: 5.4-6.7 days. Of the symptomatic cases, 95% showed symptoms by 14.3 days (95% CI: 13.0-15.7), and 99% showed symptoms by 18.7 days (95% CI: 16.7-20.9). The incubation periods were not found significantly different between male and female. Elderly cases had significant longer incubation periods than young age cases (HR 1.49 with 95% CI: 1.09-2.05). The median incubation period was estimated at 4.0 days (95% CI: 3.5-4.4) for cases aged under 30, 5.8 days (95% CI: 5.6-6.0) for cases aged between 30 and 59, and 7.7 days (95% CI: 6.9-8.4) for cases aged greater than or equal to 60.
conclusionThe current practice of a 14-day quarantine period in many regions is reasonable for any age. Older people infected with SARS-CoV2 have longer incubation period than that of younger people. Thus, more attention should be paid to asymptomatic elderly people who had a history of exposure.
Indexed as
Identifiers
What OpenQuestion holds
Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.