ArticleClinical epidemiology and global health
The basic reproduction number of the new coronavirus pandemic with mortality for India, the Syrian Arab Republic, the United States, Yemen, China, France, Nigeria and Russia with different rate of cases.
Article in Clinical epidemiology and global health. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 18 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
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Who cites it
18 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.
- Reproductive number of coronavirus: A systematic review and meta-analysis based on global level evidence.PloS one · 2020Pooled it
- Construction of effective reproduction number of infectious disease individuals based on spatiotemporal discriminant search model: take hand-foot-mouth disease as an example.BMC medical research methodology · 2024Article
- The study of human monkeypox disease in 2022 using the epidemic models: herd immunity and the basic reproduction number case.Annals of medicine and surgery (2012) · 2023Article
- Strategic COVID-19 vaccine distribution can simultaneously elevate social utility and equity.Nature human behaviour · 2022Article
- Perspectives on factors influencing transmission of COVID-19 in Zambia: a qualitative study of health workers and community members.BMJ open · 2022Article
- Transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in the Population Living in High- and Low-Density Gradient Areas in Dhaka, Bangladesh.Tropical medicine and infectious disease · 2022Article
- Long-term predictions of current confirmed and dead cases of COVID-19 in China by the non-autonomous delayed epidemic models.Cognitive neurodynamics · 2022Article
- A review on COVID-19 transmission, epidemiological features, prevention and vaccination.Medical review (2021) · 2022Review
- Numerical simulation of the force of infection and the typical times of SARS-CoV-2 disease for different location countries.Modeling earth systems and environment · 2022Article
- The basic reproductive ratio of the 2022 outbreak of the monkey pox virus disease for the United Kingdom, Canada, Brazil, the United Arab Emirates, and Nigeria.Beni-Suef University journal of basic and applied sciences · 2022Article
- Universal risk phenotype of US counties for flu-like transmission to improve county-specific COVID-19 incidence forecasts.PLoS computational biology · 2021Article
- The importation and establishment of community transmission of SARS-CoV-2 during the first eight weeks of the South African COVID-19 epidemic.EClinicalMedicine · 2021Article
- Follow or not follow?: The relationship between psychological entitlement and compliance with preventive measures to the COVID-19.Personality and individual differences · 2021Article
- Automated contact tracing: a game of big numbers in the time of COVID-19.Journal of the Royal Society, Interface · 2021Article
- Efficacy of limited antiviral treatment, testing, hospitalization, and social distancing for COVID-19 pandemic.Sensors international · 2021Article
- The COVID-19 basic reproductive ratio using SEIR model for the Middle East countries and some other countries for two stages of the disease.Bulletin of the National Research Centre · 2021Article
- Cost effective reproduction number based strategies for reducing deaths from COVID-19.Journal of mathematics in industry · 2021Article
- Reconstructing SARS-CoV-2 infection dynamics through the phylogenetic inference of unsampled sources of infection.PloS one · 2021Article
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Abstract
backgroundThe basic reproduction number values give an initial prediction of the disease because the values predict of end of the disease if the values are less than one or the disease converts to epidemic if the values are more than one. We apply the SIRD epidemiology model for estimating the basic reproduction number of the new coronavirus disease for multiple different countries.
methodsFor estimating of the basic reproduction number values, we fit the SIRD model using the Runge-Kutta simulation method in addition to the analytical solution of parts of the model. We use the collected data of the new coronavirus pandemic reported up to date July 30, 2020 in India, the Syrian Arab Republic, the United States, France, Nigeria, Yemen, China and Russia.
resultsWe find that the basic reproduction numbers of the new coronavirus disease are located in the range [1.0011-2.7936] for the different location countries and the values of the ratio between the rate of recovery and the rate of mortality are between 1.5905 for Yemen and 44.0805 for Russia. Also, we find the dates of the actual decreasing of Covid-19 cases in five countries.
conclusionsWe find that the basic reproductive number is between 1.0011 for the smallest value and 2.7936 for the greatest value. The most important thing is that the values of the basic reproduction number of the new coronavirus disease in all considered countries are more than one which means that the new coronavirus disease is epidemic in all of considered countries.
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