ArticleInfectious diseases of poverty2020
A five-compartment model of age-specific transmissibility of SARS-CoV-2.
Article in Infectious diseases of poverty, 2020. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 31 papers.
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31 citing papers in PubMed, 91 citations in OpenAlex.
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- COVID-19 in children: epidemic issues and candidate vaccines.Chinese medical journal · 2022Review
- Shigellosis seasonality and transmission characteristics in different areas of China: A modelling study.Infectious Disease Modelling · 2022Article
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- Optimal Drug Regimen and Combined Drug Therapy and Its Efficacy in the Treatment of COVID-19: A Within-Host Modeling Study.Acta biotheoretica · 2022Article
- Model-Based Evaluation of Transmissibility and Intervention Measures for a COVID-19 Outbreak in Xiamen City, China.Frontiers in public health · 2022Article
- The optimal vaccination strategy to control COVID-19: a modeling study in Wuhan City, China.Infectious diseases of poverty · 2021Article
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Authors and funding
24 authors at 6 institutions in 2 countries.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
backgroundThe novel coronavirus, severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2, also called 2019-nCoV) causes different morbidity risks to individuals in different age groups. This study attempts to quantify the age-specific transmissibility using a mathematical model.
methodsAn epidemiological model with five compartments (susceptible-exposed-symptomatic-asymptomatic-recovered/removed [SEIAR]) was developed based on observed transmission features. Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) cases were divided into four age groups: group 1, those ≤ 14 years old; group 2, those 15 to 44 years old; group 3, those 45 to 64 years old; and group 4, those ≥ 65 years old. The model was initially based on cases (including imported cases and secondary cases) collected in Hunan Province from January 5 to February 19, 2020. Another dataset, from Jilin Province, was used to test the model.
resultsThe age-specific SEIAR model fitted the data well in each age group (P < 0.001). In Hunan Province, the highest transmissibility was from age group 4 to 3 (median: β
conclusionsSARS-CoV-2 exhibits high transmissibility between middle-aged (45 to 64 years old) and elderly (≥ 65 years old) people. Children (≤ 14 years old) have very low susceptibility to COVID-19. This study will improve our understanding of the transmission feature of SARS-CoV-2 in different age groups and suggest the most prevention measures should be applied to middle-aged and elderly people.
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