ArticleJournal of the Royal Society, Interface2020
Multi-model forecasts of the ongoing Ebola epidemic in the Democratic Republic of Congo, March-October 2019.
Article in Journal of the Royal Society, Interface, 2020. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 13 papers.
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Who cites it
13 citing papers in PubMed.
- Article
- SpatialWavePredict: a tutorial-based primer and toolbox for forecasting growth trajectories using the ensemble spatial wave sub-epidemic modeling framework.BMC medical research methodology · 2024Article
- Article
- Combining models to generate consensus medium-term projections of hospital admissions, occupancy and deaths relating to COVID-19 in England.Royal Society open science · 2024Article
- GrowthPredict: A toolbox and tutorial-based primer for fitting and forecasting growth trajectories using phenomenological growth models.Scientific reports · 2024Article
- Nonlinear time-series forecasts for decision support: short-term demand for ICU beds in Santiago, Chile, during the 2021 COVID-19 pandemic.International transactions in operational research : a journal of The International Federation of Operational Research Societies · 2022Article
- An ensemble n-sub-epidemic modeling framework for short-term forecasting epidemic trajectories: Application to the COVID-19 pandemic in the USA.PLoS computational biology · 2022Article
- An ensemblemedRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences · 2022Article
- Analysis of individual-level data from 2018-2020 Ebola outbreak in Democratic Republic of the Congo.Scientific reports · 2022Article
- Ensemble bootstrap methodology for forecasting dynamic growth processes using differential equations: application to epidemic outbreaks.BMC medical research methodology · 2021Article
- Systematic comparison of epidemic growth patterns using two different estimation approaches.Infectious Disease Modelling · 2021Article
- Short-term Forecasts of the COVID-19 Epidemic in Guangdong and Zhejiang, China: February 13-23, 2020.Journal of clinical medicine · 2020Article
- Forecasting the 2020 COVID-19 Epidemic: A Multivariate Quasi-Poisson Regression to Model the Evolution of New Cases in Chile.Frontiers in public healthArticle
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5 authors.
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Abstract
The 2018-2020 Ebola outbreak in the Democratic Republic of the Congo is the first to occur in an armed conflict zone. The resulting impact on population movement, treatment centres and surveillance has created an unprecedented challenge for real-time epidemic forecasting. Most standard mathematical models cannot capture the observed incidence trajectory when it deviates from a traditional epidemic logistic curve. We fit seven dynamic models of increasing complexity to the incidence data published in the World Health Organization Situation Reports, after adjusting for reporting delays. These models include a simple logistic model, a Richards model, an endemic Richards model, a double logistic growth model, a multi-model approach and two sub-epidemic models. We analyse model fit to the data and compare real-time forecasts throughout the ongoing epidemic across 29 weeks from 11 March to 23 September 2019. We observe that the modest extensions presented allow for capturing a wide range of epidemic behaviour. The multi-model approach yields the most reliable forecasts on average for this application, and the presented extensions improve model flexibility and forecasting accuracy, even in the context of limited epidemiological data.
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