Evidence map›Paper›PMID 32837718›Full record

ArticleStat (International Statistical Institute)2020

Social distancing merely stabilized COVID-19 in the United States.

Aaron B Wagner, Elaine L Hill, Sean E Ryan, Ziteng Sun, Grace Deng, Sourbh Bhadane, Victor Hernandez Martinez, Peter Wu, Dongmei Li, Ajay Anand and 2 more

Open access · bronzeAbstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Stat (International Statistical Institute), 2020. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 16 papers, 3 of them syntheses that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
16citing papers in PubMed, 3 pooled it
0.9field-weighted citation impact, top 18% of its field
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

16 citing papers in PubMed, 3 syntheses or guidelines pooled it, 28 citations in OpenAlex.

  1. Effectiveness of social distancing measures and lockdowns for reducing transmission of COVID-19 in non-healthcare, community-based settings.Philosophical transactions. Series A, Mathematical, physical, and engineering sciences · 2023
    Pooled it
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  4. Article
  5. Article
  6. Article
  7. The Luxury of Lockdown.The European journal of development research · 2022
    Article
  8. Article
  9. Article
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  12. Impact of Workplace on the Risk of Severe COVID-19.Frontiers in public health · 2021
    Article
  13. Time dynamics of COVID-19.Scientific reports · 2020
    Article
  14. Social distancing merely stabilized COVID-19 in the United States.Stat (International Statistical Institute) · 2020
    Article
  15. Effect of social distancing on COVID-19 incidence and mortality in the US.medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences · 2020
    Article
  16. Article
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

12 authors at 4 institutions in 2 countries.

Aaron B WagnerSchool of Electrical and Computer Engineering Cornell University Ithaca New York USA.ORCID https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9127-0089
Elaine L HillDepartment of Public Health Sciences University of Rochester Medical Center Rochester New York USA.ORCID https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2494-317X
Sean E RyanDepartment of Mathematics and Statistics Lancaster University Lancaster UK.ORCID https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6010-3074
Ziteng SunSchool of Electrical and Computer Engineering Cornell University Ithaca New York USA.
Grace DengDepartment of Statistics and Data Science Cornell University Ithaca New York USA.ORCID https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0323-9231
Sourbh BhadaneSchool of Electrical and Computer Engineering Cornell University Ithaca New York USA.
Victor Hernandez MartinezDepartment of Economics University of Rochester Rochester New York USA.
Peter WuDepartment of Statistics and Data Science Cornell University Ithaca New York USA.
Dongmei LiClinical and Translational Science Institute University of Rochester Medical Center Rochester New York USA.ORCID https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9140-2483
Ajay AnandGoergen Institute for Data Science University of Rochester Rochester New York USA.
Jayadev AcharyaSchool of Electrical and Computer Engineering Cornell University Ithaca New York USA.
David S MattesonDepartment of Statistics and Data Science Cornell University Ithaca New York USA.ORCID https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2674-0387
Cornell University · USUniversity of Rochester · USUniversity of Rochester Medical Center · USLancaster University · GB

Funding

The University of Rochester's Clinical and Translational Science InstituteUL1TR002001 · NCATS · UNIVERSITY OF ROCHESTER · PI WILSON, KAREN M., ZAND, MARTIN S · 2016 to 2024
$34.6M
The Health Consequences of Shale Gas DevelopmentDP5OD021338 · OD · UNIVERSITY OF ROCHESTER · PI HILL, ELAINE L · 2015 to 2019
$1.9M
NCATS NIH HHS UL1 TR002001NIH HHS DP5 OD021338
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Social distancing measures have been imposed across the United States in order to stem the spread of COVID-19. We quantify the reduction in the doubling rate, by state, that is associated with this intervention. Using the earlier of K-12 school closures and restaurant closures, by state, to define the start of the intervention, and considering daily confirmed cases through April 23, 2020, we find that social distancing is associated with a statistically-significant (

Indexed as

changepointCOVID‐19interrupted time seriesreproduction numbersocial distancing

Identifiers

PMID32837718
PMCPMC7404665
OpenAlexW3043003420

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.