ArticleAnnual reviews in control2020
An optimal predictive control strategy for COVID-19 (SARS-CoV-2) social distancing policies in Brazil.
Article in Annual reviews in control, 2020. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 34 papers.
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Who cites it
34 citing papers in PubMed.
- The effect of quercetin supplementation on clinical outcomes in COVID-19 patients: A systematic review and meta-analysis.Food science & nutrition · 2023Review
- Interval type-2 Fuzzy control and stochastic modeling of COVID-19 spread based on vaccination and social distancing rates.Computer methods and programs in biomedicine · 2023Article
- Efficient social distancing during the COVID-19 pandemic: Integrating economic and public health considerations.European journal of operational research · 2023Article
- Dynamic transmission modeling of COVID-19 to support decision-making in Brazil: A scoping review in the pre-vaccine era.PLOS global public health · 2023Article
- Effective pandemic policy design through feedback does not need accurate predictions.PLOS global public health · 2023Article
- Unveiling conflicting strategies in the Brazilian response to COVID-19: A cross-sectional study using the Functional Resonance Analysis Method.Dialogues in health · 2022Article
- Estimate of the rate of unreported COVID-19 cases during the first outbreak in Rio de Janeiro.Infectious Disease Modelling · 2022Article
- Chasing up and locking down the virus: Optimal pandemic interventions within a network.Journal of public economic theory · 2022Article
- Quarantine, physical distancing and social isolation measures in individuals potentially exposed to SARS-CoV-2 in community settings and health services: a scoping review.Nepal journal of epidemiology · 2022Article
- Fractional-order backstepping strategy for fractional-order model of COVID-19 outbreak.Mathematical methods in the applied sciences · 2022Article
- Non-pharmaceutical intervention to reduce COVID-19 impact in Argentina.ISA transactions · 2022Article
- A parametrized nonlinear predictive control strategy for relaxing COVID-19 social distancing measures in Brazil.ISA transactions · 2022Article
- Controlling epidemic diseases based only on social distancing level: General case.ISA transactions · 2022Article
- COVID-19 and Chikungunya: an optimal control model with consideration of social and environmental factors.Journal of ambient intelligence and humanized computing · 2022Article
- Transmission dynamics model and the coronavirus disease 2019 epidemic: applications and challenges.Medical review (2021) · 2022Review
- Feedback control of social distancing for COVID-19 via elementary formulae.IFAC-PapersOnLine · 2022Article
- Mathematical Approach to Investigate Stress due to Control Measures to Curb COVID-19.Computational and mathematical methods in medicine · 2022Article
- Article
- A control framework to optimize public health policies in the course of the COVID-19 pandemic.Scientific reports · 2021Article
- Potentials of constrained sliding mode control as an intervention guide to manage COVID19 spread.Biomedical signal processing and control · 2021Article
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Authors and funding
4 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
This paper formulates a Model Predictive Control (MPC) policy to mitigate the COVID-19 contagion in Brazil, designed as optimal On-Off social isolation strategy. The proposed optimization algorithm is able to determine the time and duration of social distancing policies in the country. The achieved results are based on data from the period between March and May of 2020, regarding the cumulative number of infections and deaths due to the SARS-CoV-2 virus. This dataset is assumably largely sub-notified due to the absence of mass testing in Brazil. Thus, the MPC is based on a SIR model which is identified using an uncertainty-weighted Least-Squares criterion. Furthermore, this model includes an additional dynamic variable that mimics the response of the population to the social distancing policies determined by the government, which affect the COVID-19 transmission rate. The proposed control method is set within a mixed-logical formalism, since the decision variable is forcefully binary (existence or the absence of social distance policy). A dwell-time constraint is included to avoid too frequent shifts between these two inputs. The achieved simulation results illustrate how such optimal control method would operate in practice, pointing out that no social distancing should be relaxed before mid August 2020. If relaxations are necessary, they should not be performed before this date and should be in small periods, no longer than 25 days. This paradigm would proceed roughly until January/2021. The results also indicate a possible second peak of infections, which has a forecast to the beginning of October. This peak can be reduced if the periods of days with relaxed social isolation measures are shortened.
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