ArticleSafety science2020
A new model for the spread of COVID-19 and the improvement of safety.
Article in Safety science, 2020. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 17 papers.
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Who cites it
17 citing papers in PubMed.
- The Role of BSL-3 Laboratories in Pandemic Preparedness: A Focus on Brazil's Infrastructure for Biosafety and Disease Control.TheScientificWorldJournal · 2025Review
- Road networks and socio-demographic factors to explore COVID-19 infection during its different waves.Scientific reports · 2024Article
- Public Concern about Air Pollution and Related Health Outcomes on Social Media in China: An Analysis of Data from Sina Weibo (Chinese Twitter) and Air Monitoring Stations.International journal of environmental research and public health · 2022Article
- Dual attention-based sequential auto-encoder for Covid-19 outbreak forecasting: A case study in Vietnam.Expert systems with applications · 2022Article
- Interval type-2 fuzzy computational model for real time Kalman filtering and forecasting of the dynamic spreading behavior of novel Coronavirus 2019.ISA transactions · 2022Article
- Article
- Analysis of COVID-19 epidemic model with sumudu transform.AIMS public health · 2022Article
- Construction Safety during Pandemics: Learning from the Xinjia Express Hotel Collapse during COVID-19 in China.International journal of environmental research and public health · 2021Article
- COVID-19 pandemic decision support system for a population defense strategy and vaccination effectiveness.Safety science · 2021Article
- Challenges of SERS technology as a non-nucleic acid or -antigen detection method for SARS-CoV-2 virus and its variants.Biosensors & bioelectronics · 2021Review
- Diagnostic model for the society safety under COVID-19 pandemic conditions.Safety science · 2021Article
- Machine Learning Model for Computational Tracking and Forecasting the COVID-19 Dynamic Propagation.IEEE journal of biomedical and health informatics · 2021Article
- A dynamical model of SARS-CoV-2 based on people flow networks.Safety science · 2021Article
- Manufacturing Zero-Waste COVID-19 Personal Protection Equipment: a Case Study of Utilizing 3D Printing While Employing Waste Material Recycling.Circular economy and sustainability · 2021Article
- The Signature of the Coronavirus Lockdown in Air Pollution in Greece.Water, air, and soil pollution · 2021Article
- Modeling the spread of COVID-19 on construction workers: An agent-based approach.Safety science · 2021Article
- Transmission dynamics of COVID-19 in Algeria: The impact of physical distancing and face masks.AIMS public health · 2020Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
2 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
COVID-19 has been spreading rapidly around the world since December 2019. The main goal of this study is to develop a more effective method for diagnosing and predicting the COVID-19 spread and to evaluate the effectiveness of control measures to reduce and stop the virus spread. To this end, the COVID-19 Decision-Making System (CDMS) was developed to study disease transmission. CDMS divides the population into groups as susceptible, infected, cured and dead. The trends of the people's number in these groups have deterministic and stochastic components. The deterministic components are described by a differential equations system with parameters determined by the data reported. The stochastic components are represented as an indicator of instability that characterizes the tendency of COVID-19 spread. The simulation experiments have shown a good agreement between the CDMS estimates and the data reported in Russia and Greece. The analysis performed showed that the newly-introduced instability indicator may be the precursor to the pandemic dynamics. In this context, our results showed three potential candidates for a second wave of COVID-19 disease: USA, Russia and Brazil. Although the proportion of infected individuals in countries with high temperatures is lower than in European countries and Russia, temperature and humidity are slowly affecting the effects of the pandemic. Finally, the results presented may contribute to the urgent need to reduce the risks associated with the second wave of the COVID-19, to improve public health intervention and safety measures to be taken by various countries.
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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.