ArticleNonlinear dynamics2020
Generalized logistic growth modeling of the COVID-19 outbreak: comparing the dynamics in the 29 provinces in China and in the rest of the world.
Article in Nonlinear dynamics, 2020. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 96 papers.
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96 citing papers in PubMed.
- A generalized logistic-logit function and its application to multi-layer perceptron and neuron segmentation.Frontiers in artificial intelligence · 2026Article
- Differential impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic on sociodemographic groups: A mathematical model framework.PloS one · 2026Article
- Development of a novel dynamic nosocomial infection risk management method for COVID-19 in outpatient settings.BMC infectious diseases · 2024Article
- Tumor growth and population modeling in a toxicant-stressed random environment.Journal of mathematical biology · 2024Article
- Data-Driven Deep Learning Neural Networks for Predicting the Number of Individuals Infected by COVID-19 Omicron Variant.Epidemiologia (Basel, Switzerland) · 2023Article
- Measuring the worldwide spread of COVID-19 using a comprehensive modeling method.BMC medical informatics and decision making · 2023Article
- Growth modeling approach with the Verhulst coexistence dynamic properties for regulation purposes.Theory in biosciences = Theorie in den Biowissenschaften · 2023Article
- Fitting Early Phases of the COVID-19 Outbreak: A Comparison of the Performances of Used Models.Healthcare (Basel, Switzerland) · 2023Article
- Automatic Forecast of Intensive Care Unit Admissions: The Experience During the COVID-19 Pandemic in Italy.Journal of medical systems · 2023Article
- Solving the stochastic dynamics of population growth.Ecology and evolution · 2023Article
- An Epidemiological Analysis for Assessing and Evaluating COVID-19 Based on Data Analytics in Latin American Countries.Biology · 2023Article
- Dynamic fair balancing of COVID-19 patients over hospitals based on forecasts of bed occupancy.Omega · 2023Article
- ModInterv COVID-19: An online platform to monitor the evolution of epidemic curves.Applied soft computing · 2023Article
- Developing a Community-Oriented and Place-Based Strategy to Improve COVID-19 Vaccine Accessibility.The Permanente journal · 2023Article
- Identifying the cycles in COVID-19 infection: the case of Turkey.Journal of applied statistics · 2023Article
- An updated estimation approach for SEIR models with stochastic perturbations: Application to COVID-19 data in Bogotá.PloS one · 2023Article
- Possibility of the COVID-19 third wave in India: mapping from second wave to third wave.Indian journal of physics and proceedings of the Indian Association for the Cultivation of Science (2004) · 2023Article
- Point process models for COVID-19 cases and deaths.Journal of applied statistics · 2023Article
- Time varying Markov process with partially observed aggregate data: An application to coronavirus.Journal of econometrics · 2023Article
- A hierarchical Bayesian approach for modeling the evolution of the 7-day moving average of the number of deaths by COVID-19.Journal of applied statistics · 2023Article
36 more citing papers are in PubMed but not listed here.
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4 authors.
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Abstract
Started in Wuhan, China, the COVID-19 has been spreading all over the world. We calibrate the logistic growth model, the generalized logistic growth model, the generalized Richards model and the generalized growth model to the reported number of infected cases for the whole of China, 29 provinces in China, and 33 countries and regions that have been or are undergoing major outbreaks. We dissect the development of the epidemics in China and the impact of the drastic control measures both at the aggregate level and within each province. We quantitatively document four phases of the outbreak in China with a detailed analysis on the heterogeneous situations across provinces. The extreme containment measures implemented by China were very effective with some instructive variations across provinces. Borrowing from the experience of China, we made scenario projections on the development of the outbreak in other countries. We identified that outbreaks in 14 countries (mostly in western Europe) have ended, while resurgences of cases have been identified in several among them. The modeling results clearly show longer after-peak trajectories in western countries, in contrast to most provinces in China where the after-peak trajectory is characterized by a much faster decay. We identified three groups of countries in different level of outbreak progress, and provide informative implications for the current global pandemic.
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