ArticleNonlinear dynamics2020
Assessing the effect of containment measures on the spatio-temporal dynamic of COVID-19 in Italy.
Article in Nonlinear dynamics, 2020. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 21 papers.
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Who cites it
21 citing papers in PubMed, 44 citations in OpenAlex.
- Predicting subnational incidence of COVID-19 cases and deaths in EU countries.BMC infectious diseases · 2024Article
- Are at-risk sociodemographic attributes stable across COVID-19 transmission waves?Spatial and spatio-temporal epidemiology · 2023Article
- Estimating the propagation of both reported and undocumented COVID-19 cases in Spain: a panel data frontier approximation of epidemiological models.Journal of productivity analysis · 2023Article
- A spatio-temporal statistical model to analyze COVID-19 spread in the USA.Journal of applied statistics · 2023Article
- Beta-negative binomial nonlinear spatio-temporal random effects modeling of COVID-19 case counts in Japan.Journal of applied statistics · 2023Article
- A community-level study on COVID-19 transmission and policy interventions in Wuhan, China.Cities (London, England) · 2022Article
- A weighted approach for spatio-temporal clustering of COVID-19 spread in Italy.Spatial and spatio-temporal epidemiology · 2022Article
- Modelling the effect of a border closure between Switzerland and Italy on the spatiotemporal spread of COVID-19 in Switzerland.Spatial statistics · 2022Article
- Geospatial Analysis of a COVID-19 Outbreak at the University of Wisconsin - Madison: Potential Role of a Cluster of Local Bars.Epidemiology and infection · 2022Article
- Italian national policies in response to the COVID-19 pandemic: The case of the Friuli-Venezia-Giulia and Umbria Regions.Health policy (Amsterdam, Netherlands) · 2022Article
- How effective has the Spanish lockdown been to battle COVID-19? A spatial analysis of the coronavirus propagation across provinces.Health economics · 2022Article
- An endemic-epidemic beta model for time series of infectious disease proportions.Journal of applied statistics · 2022Article
- A framework for reconstructing transmission networks in infectious diseases.Applied network science · 2022Article
- Spatiotemporal Analysis of Covid-19 in Turkey.Sustainable cities and society · 2022Article
- A review of GIS methodologies to analyze the dynamics of COVID-19 in the second half of 2020.Transactions in GIS : TG · 2021Review
- Pan-African evolution of within- and between-country COVID-19 dynamics.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2021Article
- A causal framework to determine the effectiveness of dynamic quarantine policy to mitigate COVID-19.Applied soft computing · 2021Article
- Effects of the COVID-19 Emergency and National Lockdown on Italian Citizens' Economic Concerns, Government Trust, and Health Engagement: Evidence From a Two-Wave Panel Study.The Milbank quarterly · 2021Article
- Analysis of the Spread of COVID-19 in the USA with a Spatio-Temporal Multivariate Time Series Model.International journal of environmental research and public health · 2021Article
- A Spatio-temporal analysis of COVID-19 outbreak in Italy.Regional science policy & practice · 2020Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
5 authors at 2 institutions in 1 country.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
This paper aims at investigating empirically whether and to what extent the containment measures adopted in Italy had an impact in reducing the diffusion of the COVID-19 disease across provinces. For this purpose, we extend the multivariate time-series model for infection counts proposed in Paul and Held (Stat Med 30(10):118-1136, 2011) by augmenting the model specification with B-spline regressors in order to account for complex nonlinear spatio-temporal dynamics in the propagation of the disease. The results of the model estimated on the time series of the number of infections for the Italian provinces show that the containment measures, despite being globally effective in reducing both the spread of contagion and its self-sustaining dynamics, have had nonlinear impacts across provinces. The impact has been relatively stronger in the northern local areas, where the disease occurred earlier and with a greater incidence. This evidence may be explained by the shared popular belief that the contagion was not a close-to-home problem but rather restricted to a few distant northern areas, which, in turn, might have led individuals to adhere less strictly to containment measures and lockdown rules.
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Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.