ArticleNonlinear dynamics2020
Investigating time, strength, and duration of measures in controlling the spread of COVID-19 using a networked meta-population model.
Article in Nonlinear dynamics, 2020. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 7 papers.
What it found
Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.
The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.
Who cites it
7 citing papers in PubMed, 32 citations in OpenAlex.
- Optimal control and cost-effectiveness analysis of a new COVID-19 model for Omicron strain.Physica A · 2022Article
- A Modified PINN Approach for Identifiable Compartmental Models in Epidemiology with Application to COVID-19.Viruses · 2022Article
- Modelling of spatial infection spread through heterogeneous population: from lattice to partial differential equation models.Royal Society open science · 2022Article
- Transmission dynamics model and the coronavirus disease 2019 epidemic: applications and challenges.Medical review (2021) · 2022Review
- Mathematical Analysis of Two Waves of COVID-19 Disease with Impact of Vaccination as Optimal Control.Computational and mathematical methods in medicine · 2022Article
- Modeling COVID-19 spreading dynamics and unemployment rate evolution in rural and urban counties of Alabama and New York using fractional derivative models.Results in physics · 2021Article
- Article
Corrections and comments
PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.
Authors and funding
6 authors at 5 institutions in 3 countries.
Funding
Abstract
Policy makers around the world are facing unprecedented challenges in making decisions on when and what degrees of measures should be implemented to tackle the COVID-19 pandemic. Here, using a nationwide mobile phone dataset, we developed a networked meta-population model to simulate the impact of intervention in controlling the spread of the virus in China by varying the effectiveness of transmission reduction and the timing of intervention start and relaxation. We estimated basic reproduction number and transition probabilities between health states based on reported cases. Our model demonstrates that both the time of initiating an intervention and its effectiveness had a very large impact on controlling the epidemic, and the current Chinese intense social distancing intervention has reduced the impact substantially but would have been even more effective had it started earlier. The optimal duration of the control measures to avoid resurgence was estimated to be 2 months, although would need to be longer under less effective controls.
Indexed as
Identifiers
What OpenQuestion holds
Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.