Evidence map›Paper›PMID 32834920›Full record

ArticleJournal of mathematics in industry2020

An age and space structured SIR model describing the Covid-19 pandemic.

Rinaldo M Colombo, Mauro Garavello, Francesca Marcellini, Elena Rossi

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Journal of mathematics in industry, 2020. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 7 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
7citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

7 citing papers in PubMed.

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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

4 authors.

Rinaldo M ColomboINdaM Unit, University of Brescia, Via Branze 38, Brescia, 25123 Italy.ORCID 0000-0003-0459-585X
Mauro GaravelloDept. of Mathematics and its Applications, University of Milano-Bicocca, Via R. Cozzi 55, Milan, 20125 Italy.ORCID 0000-0002-6127-8984
Francesca MarcelliniINdaM Unit, University of Brescia, Via Branze 38, Brescia, 25123 Italy.ORCID 0000-0003-1619-6565
Elena RossiDept. of Mathematics and its Applications, University of Milano-Bicocca, Via R. Cozzi 55, Milan, 20125 Italy.ORCID 0000-0002-3565-4309

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

We present an epidemic model capable of describing key features of the Covid-19 pandemic. While capturing several qualitative properties of the virus spreading, it allows to compute the basic reproduction number, the number of deaths due to the virus and various other statistics. Numerical integrations are used to illustrate the adherence of the evolutions described by the model to specific well known real features of the present pandemic. In particular, this model is consistent with the well known relevance of quarantine, shows the dramatic role of care houses and accounts for the increase in the death toll when spatial movements are not constrained. ELECTRONIC SUPPLEMENTARY MATERIAL: The online version of this article (10.1186/s13362-020-00090-4) contains supplementary material.

Indexed as

Age and Space Structured SIR ModelCovid-19 ModelingDifferential Equations in Epidemic Modeling

Identifiers

PMID32834920
PMCPMC7414273

What OpenQuestion holds

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LicenceCC BY
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Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.