Evidence map›Paper›PMID 32834656›Full record

ArticleChaos, solitons, and fractals2020

On forecasting the spread of the COVID-19 in Iran: The second wave.

Behzad Ghanbari

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Chaos, solitons, and fractals, 2020. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 35 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
35citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

35 citing papers in PubMed.

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  15. COVID-19: The Second Wave is not due to Cooling-down in Autumn.Journal of epidemiology and global health · 2021
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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

1 author.

Behzad GhanbariDepartment of Engineering Science, Kermanshah University of Technology, Kermanshah, Iran.

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

One of the common misconceptions about COVID-19 disease is to assume that we will not see a recurrence after the first wave of the disease has subsided. This completely wrong perception causes people to disregard the necessary protocols and engage in some misbehavior, such as routine socializing or holiday travel. These conditions will put double pressure on the medical staff and endanger the lives of many people around the world. In this research, we are interested in analyzing the existing data to predict the number of infected people in the second wave of out-breaking COVID-19 in Iran. For this purpose, a model is proposed. The mathematical analysis corresponded to the model is also included in this paper. Based on proposed numerical simulations, several scenarios of progress of COVID-19 corresponding to the second wave of the disease in the coming months, will be discussed. We predict that the second wave of will be most severe than the first one. From the results, improving the recovery rate of people with weak immune systems via appropriate medical incentives is resulted as one of the most effective prescriptions to prevent the widespread unbridled outbreak of the second wave of COVID-19.

Indexed as

COVID-19Dynamic systemsForecasting of the epidemicInfectious diseaseThe second wave

Identifiers

PMID32834656
PMCPMC7386426

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.