ArticleChaos, solitons, and fractals2020
The susceptible-unidentified infected-confirmed (SUC) epidemic model for estimating unidentified infected population for COVID-19.
Article in Chaos, solitons, and fractals, 2020. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 15 papers.
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15 citing papers in PubMed.
- Mechanistic Understanding of Pandemic Dynamics: A Multiscale Algorithmic Framework.Life (Basel, Switzerland) · 2026Article
- Optimal time-dependent SUC model for COVID-19 pandemic in India.BMC infectious diseases · 2024Article
- Role of immigration and emigration on the spread of COVID-19 in a multipatch environment: a case study of India.Scientific reports · 2023Article
- Limits of epidemic prediction using SIR models.Journal of mathematical biology · 2022Article
- Pandemic fatigue impact on COVID-19 spread: A mathematical modelling answer to the Italian scenario.Results in physics · 2021Article
- Predicting Hospital Resource Use During COVID-19 Surges: A Simple but Flexible Discretely Integrated Condition Event Simulation of Individual Patient-Hospital Trajectories.Value in health : the journal of the International Society for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research · 2021Article
- Dynamical analysis of novel COVID-19 epidemic model with non-monotonic incidence function.Journal of public affairs · 2021Article
- An integrated framework for building trustworthy data-driven epidemiological models: Application to the COVID-19 outbreak in New York City.PLoS computational biology · 2021Article
- Controlling COVID-19 Outbreaks with Financial Incentives.International journal of environmental research and public health · 2021Article
- Sen's Innovative Method for Trend Analysis of Epidemic: A Case Study of Covid-19 Pandemic in India.Transactions of the Indian National Academy of Engineering : an international journal of engineering and technology · 2021Article
- Long-Time Analysis of a Time-Dependent SUC Epidemic Model for the COVID-19 Pandemic.Journal of healthcare engineering · 2021Article
- Impact of control interventions on COVID-19 population dynamics in Malaysia: a mathematical study.European physical journal plus · 2021Article
- Vaccination and social distance to prevent COVID-19.IFAC-PapersOnLine · 2021Article
- Mathematical modeling of COVID-19 in India and Nepal with optimal control and sensitivity analysis.European physical journal plus · 2021Article
- Complex dynamics in susceptible-infected models for COVID-19 with multi-drug resistance.Chaos, solitons, and fractals · 2020Article
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3 authors.
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Abstract
In this article, we propose the Susceptible-Unidentified infected-Confirmed (SUC) epidemic model for estimating the unidentified infected population for coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in China. The unidentified infected population means the infected but not identified people. They are not yet hospitalized and still can spread the disease to the susceptible. To estimate the unidentified infected population, we find the optimal model parameters which best fit the confirmed case data in the least-squares sense. Here, we use the time series data of the confirmed cases in China reported by World Health Organization. In addition, we perform the practical identifiability analysis of the proposed model using the Monte Carlo simulation. The proposed model is simple but potentially useful in estimating the unidentified infected population to monitor the effectiveness of interventions and to prepare the quantity of protective masks or COVID-19 diagnostic kit to supply, hospital beds, medical staffs, and so on. Therefore, to control the spread of the infectious disease, it is essential to estimate the number of the unidentified infected population. The proposed SUC model can be used as a basic building block mathematical equation for estimating unidentified infected population.
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