Epidemic in networked population with recurrent mobility pattern.

The novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) has caused a global crisis and many governments have taken social measures, such as home quarantine and maintaining social distance. Many recent studies show that network structure and human mobility greatly influence the dynamics of epidemic spreading. In this paper, we utilize a discrete-time Markov chain approach and propose an epidemic model to describe virus propagation in the heterogeneous graph, which is used to represent individuals with intra social connections and mobility between individuals and common locations. There are two types of nodes, individuals and public places, and disease can spread by social contacts among individuals and people gathering in common areas. We give theoretical results about epidemic threshold and influence of isolation factor. Several numerical simulations are performed and experimental results further demonstrate the correctness of proposed model. Non-monotonic relationship between mobility possibility and epidemic threshold and differences between Erdös-Rényi and power-law social connections are revealed. In summary, our proposed approach and findings are helpful to analyse and prevent the epidemic spreading in networked population with recurrent mobility pattern.