ArticleSafety science2020
A phenomenological approach to assessing the effectiveness of COVID-19 related nonpharmaceutical interventions in Germany.
Article in Safety science, 2020. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 24 papers, 3 of them syntheses that pooled it.
What it found
Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.
The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.
Who cites it
24 citing papers in PubMed, 3 syntheses or guidelines pooled it, 65 citations in OpenAlex.
- Effectiveness of social distancing measures and lockdowns for reducing transmission of COVID-19 in non-healthcare, community-based settings.Philosophical transactions. Series A, Mathematical, physical, and engineering sciences · 2023Pooled it
- The methodologies to assess the effectiveness of non-pharmaceutical interventions during COVID-19: a systematic review.European journal of epidemiology · 2022Pooled it
- The incubation period during the pandemic of COVID-19: a systematic review and meta-analysis.Systematic reviews · 2021Pooled it
- The Effects of Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions on COVID-19 Cases, Hospitalizations, and Mortality: A Systematic Literature Review and Meta-Analysis.AJPM focus · 2023Review
- High potential of technology to face new respiratory viruses: mechanical ventilation devices for effective healthcare to next pandemic emergencies.Technology in society · 2023Article
- Nonpharmaceutical Interventions in Georgia: Public Health Implications.Southern medical journal · 2023Article
- Stock market responses to COVID-19: The behaviors of mean reversion, dependence and persistence.Heliyon · 2023Article
- The changing contributory role to infections of work, public transport, shopping, hospitality and leisure activities throughout the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic in England and Wales.NIHR open research · 2023Article
- Sources, diffusion and prediction in COVID-19 pandemic: lessons learned to face next health emergency.AIMS public health · 2023Review
- Suit the Remedy to the Case-The Effectiveness of COVID-19 Nonpharmaceutical Prevention and Control Policies Based on Individual Going-Out Behavior.International journal of environmental research and public health · 2022Article
- Inferring UK COVID-19 fatal infection trajectories from daily mortality data: Were infections already in decline before the UK lockdowns?Biometrics · 2022Article
- A Qualitative Study Evaluating the Factors Affecting Families' Adherence to the First COVID-19 Lockdown in England Using the COM-B Model and TDF.International journal of environmental research and public health · 2022Article
- Estimating and explaining cross-country variation in the effectiveness of non-pharmaceutical interventions during COVID-19.Scientific reports · 2022Article
- Identifying factors associated with COVID-19 related deaths during the first wave of the pandemic in Europe.Frontiers in public health · 2022Article
- Impact of school closures and re-openings on COVID-19 transmission.Canada communicable disease report = Releve des maladies transmissibles au Canada · 2021Article
- Progression of COVID-19 under the highly restrictive measures imposed in Argentina.Journal of public health research · 2021Article
- The Covid-19 containment effects of public health measures: A spatial difference-in-differences approach.Journal of regional science · 2021Article
- Analyzing National Responses to COVID-19 Pandemic using STPA.Safety science · 2021Article
- [Measures to cope with the COVID-19 pandemic in Germany: nonpharmaceutical and pharmaceutical interventions].Bundesgesundheitsblatt, Gesundheitsforschung, Gesundheitsschutz · 2021Review
- Analysis of the early COVID-19 epidemic curve in Germany by regression models with change points.Epidemiology and infection · 2021Article
Corrections and comments
PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.
Authors and funding
1 author at 1 institution in 1 country.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
Nonpharmaceutical interventions against the spread of SARS-CoV-2 in Germany included the cancellation of mass events (from March 8), closures of schools and child day care facilities (from March 16) as well as a "lockdown" (from March 23). This study attempts to assess the effectiveness of these interventions in terms of revealing their impact on infections over time. Dates of infections were estimated from official German case data by incorporating the incubation period and an empirical reporting delay. Exponential growth models for infections and reproduction numbers were estimated and investigated with respect to change points in the time series. A significant decline of daily and cumulative infections as well as reproduction numbers is found at March 8, March 10 and March 3, respectively. Further declines and stabilizations are found in the end of March. There is also a change point in new infections at April 19, but daily infections still show a negative growth. From March 19, the reproduction numbers fluctuate on a level below one. The decline of infections in early March 2020 can be attributed to relatively small interventions and voluntary behavioural changes. Additional effects of later interventions cannot be detected clearly. Liberalizations of measures from April 20 did not induce a re-increase of infections. Thus, the effectiveness of most German interventions remains questionable. Moreover, assessing of interventions is impeded by the estimation of true infection dates and the influence of test volume.
Indexed as
Identifiers
What OpenQuestion holds
Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.