ArticleSystem dynamics review
Simulation-based estimation of the early spread of COVID-19 in Iran: actual versus confirmed cases.
Article in System dynamics review. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 24 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
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Who cites it
24 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.
- Using system dynamics modelling to assess the economic efficiency of innovations in the public sector - a systematic review.PloS one · 2022Pooled it
- Designing a model to estimate the burden of COVID-19 in Iran.BMC public health · 2024Article
- Does a GP service package matter in addressing the absence of health management by the occupational population? A modelling study.BMC health services research · 2024Article
- Parameter estimation in behavioral epidemic models with endogenous societal risk-response.PLoS computational biology · 2024Article
- The SEIR model incorporating asymptomatic cases, behavioral measures, and lockdowns: Lesson learned from the COVID-19 flow in Sweden.Biomedical signal processing and control · 2023Article
- A missing behavioural feedback in COVID-19 models is the key to several puzzles.BMJ global health · 2022Article
- A simulation-deep reinforcement learning (SiRL) approach for epidemic control optimization.Annals of operations research · 2022Article
- Using simulation modelling and systems science to help contain COVID-19: A systematic review.Systems research and behavioral science · 2022Article
- Enhancing long-term forecasting: Learning from COVID-19 models.PLoS computational biology · 2022Article
- Anticipating human resilience and vulnerability on the path to 2030: What can we learn from COVID-19?Futures · 2022Article
- Collaboration-competition dilemma in flattening the COVID-19 curve.Production and operations management · 2022Article
- Estimating COVID-19-Related Infections, Deaths, and Hospitalizations in Iran Under Different Physical Distancing and Isolation Scenarios.International journal of health policy and management · 2022Article
- Measuring the impact of donations at the Bottom of the Pyramid (BoP) amid the COVID-19 pandemic.Annals of operations research · 2022Article
- Investigation of Factors Affecting COVID-19 and Sixth Wave Management Using a System Dynamics Approach.Journal of healthcare engineering · 2022Article
- Identification of COVID-19 spread mechanisms based on first-wave data, simulation models, and evolutionary algorithms.PloS one · 2022Article
- Weather, air pollution, and SARS-CoV-2 transmission: a global analysis.The Lancet. Planetary health · 2021Article
- Analysis of Key Factors of a SARS-CoV-2 Vaccination Program: A Mathematical Modeling Approach.Epidemiologia (Basel, Switzerland) · 2021Article
- SARS-CoV-2 antibody seroprevalence in the general population and high-risk occupational groups across 18 cities in Iran: a population-based cross-sectional study.The Lancet. Infectious diseases · 2021Article
- Rapid review of COVID-19 epidemic estimation studies for Iran.BMC public health · 2021Review
- Universal features of epidemic models under social distancing guidelines.Annual reviews in control · 2021Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
2 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
Understanding the state of the COVID-19 pandemic relies on infection and mortality data. Yet official data may underestimate the actual cases due to limited symptoms and testing capacity. We offer a simulation-based approach which combines various sources of data to estimate the magnitude of outbreak. Early in the epidemic we applied the method to Iran's case, an epicenter of the pandemic in winter 2020. Estimates using data up to March 20th, 2020, point to 916,000 (90% UI: 508 K, 1.5 M) cumulative cases and 15,485 (90% UI: 8.4 K, 25.8 K) total deaths, numbers an order of magnitude higher than official statistics. Our projections suggest that absent strong sustaining of contact reductions the epidemic may resurface. We also use data and studies from the succeeding months to reflect on the quality of original estimates. Our proposed approach can be used for similar cases elsewhere to provide a more accurate, early, estimate of outbreak state. © 2020 System Dynamics Society.
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