Evidence map›Paper›PMID 32832634›Full record

ArticleScience advances2020

Wise or mad crowds? The cognitive mechanisms underlying information cascades.

Alan N Tump, Timothy J Pleskac, Ralf H J M Kurvers

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Science advances, 2020. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 39 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
39citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

39 citing papers in PubMed.

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  14. Deliberation during online bargaining reveals strategic information.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2025
    Article
  15. Agents seeking long-term access to the wisdom of the crowd reduce immediate decision-making accuracy.Philosophical transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological sciences · 2024
    Article
  16. Humans flexibly integrate social information despite interindividual differences in reward.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2024
    Article
  17. Article
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  19. A Cognitive Computational Approach to Social and Collective Decision-Making.Perspectives on psychological science : a journal of the Association for Psychological Science · 2024
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  20. Article
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

3 authors.

Alan N TumpMax Planck Institute for Human Development, Center for Adaptive Rationality, Lentzeallee 94, 14195 Berlin, Germany.ORCID 0000-0001-7725-7929
Timothy J PleskacMax Planck Institute for Human Development, Center for Adaptive Rationality, Lentzeallee 94, 14195 Berlin, Germany.ORCID 0000-0001-5761-1900
Ralf H J M KurversMax Planck Institute for Human Development, Center for Adaptive Rationality, Lentzeallee 94, 14195 Berlin, Germany.ORCID 0000-0002-3460-0392

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Whether getting vaccinated, buying stocks, or crossing streets, people rarely make decisions alone. Rather, multiple people decide sequentially, setting the stage for information cascades whereby early-deciding individuals can influence others' choices. To understand how information cascades through social systems, it is essential to capture the dynamics of the decision-making process. We introduce the social drift-diffusion model to capture these dynamics. We tested our model using a sequential choice task. The model was able to recover the dynamics of the social decision-making process, accurately capturing how individuals integrate personal and social information dynamically over time and when their decisions were timed. Our results show the importance of the interrelationships between accuracy, confidence, and response time in shaping the quality of information cascades. The model reveals the importance of capturing the dynamics of decision processes to understand how information cascades in social systems, paving the way for applications in other social systems.

Identifiers

PMID32832634
PMCPMC7439644

What OpenQuestion holds

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Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.