ArticlePharmaceutical research2020
Optimizing Predictive Performance of Bayesian Forecasting for Vancomycin Concentration in Intensive Care Patients.
Article in Pharmaceutical research, 2020. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. An erratum has been issued. Cited by 8 papers.
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Who cites it
8 citing papers in PubMed.
- Model-Informed Precision Dosing of Protein Kinase Inhibitors: Evaluation of Model-Averaging and Flattened Priors Methods.Clinical pharmacokinetics · 2026Trial
- Recommended approaches for integration of population pharmacokinetic modelling with precision dosing in clinical practice.British journal of clinical pharmacology · 2025Review
- Interinstitutional Comparison of Vancomycin Area Under the Concentration-Time Curve Estimation in Korea: Need for Standardized Operational Protocols for Therapeutic Drug Monitoring Consultation.Annals of laboratory medicine · 2025Article
- Dose Individualisation of Antimicrobials from a Pharmacometric Standpoint: The Current Landscape.Drugs · 2024Review
- External validation of population pharmacokinetic models of tacrolimus in Thai adult liver transplant recipients.European journal of clinical pharmacology · 2024Article
- Unraveling the Effects of Acute Inflammation on Pharmacokinetics: A Model-Based Analysis Focusing on Renal Glomerular Filtration Rate and Cytochrome P450 3A4-Mediated Metabolism.European journal of drug metabolism and pharmacokinetics · 2023Article
- Towards Model-Informed Precision Dosing of Voriconazole: Challenging Published Voriconazole Nonlinear Mixed-Effects Models with Real-World Clinical Data.Clinical pharmacokinetics · 2023Article
- External Evaluation of Population Pharmacokinetic Models of Busulfan in Chinese Adult Hematopoietic Stem Cell Transplantation Recipients.Frontiers in pharmacology · 2022Article
Corrections and comments
- Erratum issued
Authors and funding
11 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
purposeBayesian forecasting is crucial for model-based dose optimization based on therapeutic drug monitoring (TDM) data of vancomycin in intensive care (ICU) patients. We aimed to evaluate the performance of Bayesian forecasting using maximum a posteriori (MAP) estimation for model-based TDM.
methodsWe used a vancomycin TDM data set (n = 408 patients). We compared standard MAP-based Bayesian forecasting with two alternative approaches: (i) adaptive MAP which handles data over multiple iterations, and (ii) weighted MAP which weights the likelihood contribution of data. We evaluated the percentage error (PE) for seven scenarios including historical TDM data from the preceding day up to seven days.
resultsThe mean of median PEs of all scenarios for the standard MAP, adaptive MAP and weighted MAP method were - 7.7%, -4.5% and - 6.7%. The adaptive MAP also showed the narrowest inter-quartile range of PE. In addition, regardless of MAP method, including historical TDM data further in the past will increase prediction errors.
conclusionsThe proposed adaptive MAP method outperforms standard MAP in predictive performance and may be considered for improvement of model-based dose optimization. The inclusion of historical data beyond either one day (standard MAP and weighted MAP) or two days (adaptive MAP) reduces predictive performance.
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